The Arizona Diamondbacks face the New York Mets in a crucial series-deciding matchup. The Mets are currently leading the NL East with a 23-14 record, while the Diamondbacks are fourth in the NL West with a 19-17 record.
Key Factors to Consider
The Mets have been strong in the NL East, but the Diamondbacks have shown resilience in close games. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has been a key player for the Diamondbacks with recent performances.
The Diamondbacks won the previous game 5-1, showcasing their ability to compete against top teams.
No significant injury updates are available for this match.
The home field advantage could play a role for the Diamondbacks, but the Mets' overall performance this season is a significant factor.
Both teams are motivated to win, with the Diamondbacks looking to take the series and the Mets aiming to maintain their lead in the NL East.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Arizona Diamondbacks: +108, New York Mets: -126
New York Mets
★★★☆☆ 55%
Spread
Arizona Diamondbacks: +1.5 -146, New York Mets: -1.5 122
New York Mets
★★★☆☆ 52%
Over/under
Over: 9 -102, Under: 9 -120
Under
★★★☆☆ 55%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
New York Mets 4%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 9 8%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 9 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The Mets are favored due to their strong season performance, but the Diamondbacks have shown they can compete at home.
The Philadelphia Phillies are looking to complete a series sweep against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Aaron Nola pitched a strong game on May 3, helping the Phillies win 7-2. Eduardo Rodriguez starts for the Diamondbacks on May 4, while the Phillies deploy Ranger Suarez in his season debut.
Key Factors to Consider
The Phillies have won six of their last seven games, showing strong form. Aaron Nola's recent performance boosts their starting rotation.
Recent momentum favors the Phillies, with a convincing win on May 3.
There are no significant injuries reported for this match.
Weather conditions and crowd support could favor the Phillies at home.
Both teams have strong motivation, but the Phillies aim to complete the sweep.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
-134 for Phillies, +114 for Diamondbacks
Philadelphia Phillies
★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread
Phillies -1.5 +158, Diamondbacks +1.5 -192
Diamondbacks +1.5
★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under
Over 9 -105, Under 9 -115
Under
★★★☆☆ 53%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Philadelphia Phillies -99%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 9 -99%
⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.
Predicted Outcome
Phillies to win, given their recent form and Nola's positive start.
Final game of a three-game series between the New York Mets and Arizona Diamondbacks, with the Mets favored at home. The Diamondbacks are positioned as underdogs, attempting to avoid a series sweep or secure a road victory.
Key Factors to Consider
Limited current-season data available, but Mets favored at home with stronger moneyline odds (-162). Diamondbacks' recent performance (as underdogs) suggests potential resilience.
No specific head-to-head stats provided, but Mets hold home-field advantage with odds reflecting stronger confidence in their lineup.
No injury reports available in provided data.
Game played at Citi Field (hitter-friendly dimensions may influence scoring). Weather conditions unstated but presumed neutral.
Mets aim to leverage home advantage to close the series; Diamondbacks seek to avoid back-to-back losses.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
NYM: -162 | ARI: +136
Mets ML
★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread
NYM -1.5 (+130) | ARI +1.5 (-156)
Diamondbacks +1.5
★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under
Over 7.5 (-118) | Under 7.5 (-104)
Under 7.5
★★★☆☆ 60%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
New York Mets 46%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 7.5 8%
🔥 Best Value Pick: New York Mets at 46% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 34.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Mets win by a narrow margin (1-2 runs), with moderate confidence due to home advantage and slightly superior pitching matchups implied by odds.
The Diamondbacks seek redemption after Eugenio Suárez’s historic 4-HR game in an 8-7 loss to the Braves. Both teams are near .500, with Arizona slightly stronger at home (7-8) and Atlanta struggling on the road (4-11). Pitching matchup features Brandon Pfaadt (4-1, 2.73 ERA) for Arizona and Spencer Schwellenbach (1-1, 2.56 ERA) for Atlanta.
Key Factors to Consider
Arizona’s lineup has momentum from Suárez’s power surge, while Atlanta’s bullpen (notably closer Iglesias’ 6.30 ERA) remains vulnerable. The Braves excel in late-game comebacks, erasing deficits in 4 of their last 7 wins.
Braves’ Jarred Kelenic absent (replaced by Eli White, who homered twice in series). No major Arizona injuries reported.
Home-field advantage for Arizona, though limited (7-8 at home). Over/under leans toward pitching duel (8.5 runs), but both teams have power potential.
Arizona aims to avenge Saturday’s collapse; Atlanta seeks to capitalize on bullpen vulnerabilities.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Arizona -106 | Atlanta -110
Braves (-110)
★★★☆☆ 55%
Spread
Arizona +1.5 (-178) | Atlanta -1.5 (+146)
Braves -1.5 (+146)
40% (high-risk, given close matchup)
Over/under
Over 8.5 (-104) | Under 8.5 (-118)
Over 8.5 (-104)
★★★☆☆ 60%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Atlanta Braves 3%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 8.5 14%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 8.5 at 14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Braves (-110) moneyline offers slight value due to Arizona’s bullpen inconsistencies and Atlanta’s recent clutch hitting. Expect a close game with late-inning drama, favoring over 8.5 runs (moderate confidence) despite odds.