Match Analysis: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Louisville Cardinals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-01
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Jake Kline Field – Frank Eck Stadium, South Bend, IN
Game Overview
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (24-18, 10-14 ACC) host the No. 17 Louisville Cardinals (31-13, 12-9 ACC) in a critical ACC series opener. Louisville swept the 2024 series and holds a 40-11 all-time advantage, though Notre Dame won the 2023 home series. This game features a ranked Louisville team with superior ACC performance against a Notre Dame squad seeking redemption.
Key Factors to Consider
- Louisville boasts better overall (31-13 vs. 24-18) and conference (12-9 vs. 10-14) records. Notre Dame lost 11-5 to unranked Purdue on April 29, indicating recent inconsistency.
- Louisville swept the 2024 series (5-3, 5-1, 14-6) and leads the all-time series 40-11. Notre Dame’s 2023 home series win (2-1) shows limited home-field advantage.
- No injury reports available. Monitor pre-game lineups for last-minute changes.
- Home-field advantage for Notre Dame mitigated by Louisville’s recent dominance. Weather unspecified but no delays reported in game notes.
- Notre Dame needs ACC wins for postseason contention. Louisville aims to solidify rankings and tournament seeding.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Louisville -166 / Notre Dame +130 | Louisville win | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Spread | Louisville -1.5 (estimated +120) / Notre Dame +1.5 (estimated -140) | Louisville -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | Over/Under 10.5 (estimated -110 both sides) | Under 10.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Louisville Cardinals 33% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Louisville Cardinals at 33% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 25.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Louisville’s superior pitching depth and recent dominance in the series give them the edge, though Notre Dame’s home crowd could keep it competitive initially.
Predicted Score: Louisville 6-3 Notre Dame