Match Analysis: Montreal Alouettes vs Saskatchewan Roughriders – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-02
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Percival Molson Memorial Stadium, Montreal, QC
Game Overview
The Saskatchewan Roughriders (6-1), holding the best record in the CFL, face the Montreal Alouettes (5-2) with strong defenses and offenses at play. Saskatchewan is slight favorite on the spread and moneyline, with a total points line near 49.5.
Key Factors to Consider
- Saskatchewan is 6-1 overall and 5-2 ATS, bringing the league's top offense. Montreal is 5-2 with a top-ranked defense, having recently upset Calgary relying heavily on field goals.
- Recent meetings show competitiveness but Saskatchewanβs superior record and road success indicate a slight edge. The last seen QB performances favor Saskatchewan's Trevor Harris for efficiency and scoring.
- Montreal's starting QB Davis Alexander is out; McLeod Bethel-Thompson starts and is effective at managing field goal drives, though less dynamic than Harris. Saskatchewanβs key players appear healthy.
- The game is at Montrealβs home stadium, known for tough conditions and a strong home-field advantage, but Saskatchewan has been perfect on the road this season, mitigating this factor.
- Saskatchewan aims to maintain league-best record and road dominance; Montreal seeks to leverage home advantage and defensive strength to halt Roughriders.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Montreal +118 / Saskatchewan -142 | Saskatchewan | β β β β β 78% |
Spread | Montreal +2.5 -105 / Saskatchewan -2.5 -115 | Saskatchewan -2.5 | β β β β β 72% |
Over/under | Over 49.5 -115 / Under 49.5 -105 | Over 49.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Saskatchewan Roughriders 2% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 49.5 7% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 49.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Saskatchewan Roughriders to win outright on the moneyline, cover the 2.5 point spread, and the game to go over 49.5 points
Predicted Score: Saskatchewan Roughriders 28 – Montreal Alouettes 23