Match Analysis: Canelo Álvarez vs William Scull – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-03
- Time: 3:00 AM UTC
- Location: ANB Arena, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Game Overview
Undisputed super middleweight champion Canelo Álvarez defends his titles against undefeated mandatory challenger William Scull. Canelo brings elite counterpunching and championship experience (60-2-2, 39 KOs), while Scull (22-0, 9 KOs) faces his first career-defining test with significant physical advantages in height and reach.
Key Factors to Consider
- Canelo dominates in championship experience (18+ years as pro) and KO power (39 KOs). Scull lacks elite-level competition but maintains perfect record.
- First meeting between fighters
- No reported injuries
- Scull's mandatory challenger status pressures Canelo; Saudi Arabia's Riyadh Season event amplifies global spotlight
- Canelo defends legacy ahead of potential Crawford clash; Scull seeks career-altering upset
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Canelo -5000 | Scull +1200 | Canelo Álvarez | ★★★★★ 95% |
| Over/under | Over 9.5 Rounds -125 | Under 9.5 Rounds -105 | Over 9.5 Rounds | ★★★★☆ 80% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Canelo Álvarez -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 9.5 30% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 9.5 at 30% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 37% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Canelo by decision (60-54 scorecard equivalent) – superior ring IQ and championship seasoning will overcome Scull's physical advantages
Predicted Score: Unanimous Decision for Canelo (117-111, 118-110, 116-112)