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Match Analysis: Welisson Paiva vs Mateusz Makarowski – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-20
- Time: 5:00 PM UTC
- Location: Hala Podpromie, Rzeszów, Poland
Game Overview
This lightweight division fight between Welisson Paiva of Brazil and Mateusz Makarowski of Poland is part of the KSW 110 card held at Hala Podpromie. It is a main card bout scheduled for 7:00 PM UTC on September 20, 2025. Both fighters bring solid experience to the cage, with Paiva holding a record of 12-3-2 and Makarowski having a record of 13-7-1. This matchup is a key fight on the card, featuring contrasting fighting styles and approaches.
Key Factors to Consider
- Welisson Paiva has demonstrated a consistent ability to control fights with a mix of striking and grappling, highlighted by his solid win and low loss count. Mateusz Makarowski, a taller fighter with a slight reach advantage, has a more mixed record, indicating less consistency but notable toughness and resilience.
- There is no available record of previous direct encounters between Welisson Paiva and Mateusz Makarowski, making this their first meeting in the cage.
- No recent or reported injuries for either fighter ahead of the match have been noted from the available data sources.
- Fighting in Poland corresponds to a home advantage for Mateusz Makarowski, which could influence crowd support and fighter morale. The event takes place under KSW, a popular European promotion, attracting significant local attention.
- Both fighters are motivated to secure victories in a major promotion event to advance their standing. Makarowski may have extra incentive performing in front of a home crowd, while Paiva looks to solidify his international reputation.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Welisson_Paiva: +105, Mateusz_Makarowski: -110, Draw: +2500 | Mateusz Makarowski | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Spread | Welisson_Paiva_-1.5: +150, Mateusz_Makarowski_+1.5: -180 | Mateusz Makarowski +1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over_2.5_Rounds: -120, Under_2.5_Rounds: +100 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Home 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Welisson Paiva's more consistent and favorable fight record, combined with his well-rounded fighting style, he is predicted to win by a decision or late finish, although Makarowski's home advantage and durability might make this competitive.
Predicted Score: Welisson Paiva wins by decision or submission in round 3 or later