Match Analysis: Welisson Paiva vs Mateusz Makarowski – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-20
• Time: 5:00 PM UTC
• Location: Hala Podpromie, Rzeszów, Poland

Game Overview

This KSW Lightweight division main card bout features Welisson Paiva, a 12-4-1 Brazilian fighter known for his striking power, against Polish local Mateusz Makarowski, who stands slightly taller with a reach advantage. Both fighters have similar experience levels but differing styles.

Key Factors to Consider

• Welisson Paiva comes in with a strong recent form, leveraging notable striking accuracy and experience in finishing fights, while Makarowski's record is slightly less prominent with fewer high-profile wins. Paiva's consistent pressure and grappling defense have been superior in his last five fights.
• No direct previous encounters between these two fighters; this will be their first matchup.
• No reported injuries affecting either fighter as of fight day, indicating both at full strength.
• Fight taking place in Makarowski's home country (Poland), possibly favoring him with crowd support. However, Welisson Paiva has extensive international fight experience, which might neutralize home advantage.
• Motivation appears high for both; Paiva aims to improve his KSW standing while Makarowski is motivated to claim a significant win on home soil to elevate his profile.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	+105	Welisson Paiva	★★★★☆ 70%
Spread	-110	Welisson Paiva -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	-115	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Away 44%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Away at 44% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Welisson Paiva to win by Moneyline, with a moderately conservative spread play favoring Paiva by a 1.5 rounds margin, and the fight to go over the total rounds line set.

Predicted Score: Welisson Paiva wins via decision or late finish in Round 3

Match Analysis: Welisson Paiva vs Dawid Smielowski – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-02-21
• Time: 5:00 PM UTC
• Location: Not specified

Game Overview

Welisson Paiva and Dawid Smielowski are set to face off in a lightweight bout at KSW 103. Both fighters have impressive records, with Paiva holding 11 wins, 4 losses, and 2 draws, while Smielowski has 11 wins and 2 losses.

Key Factors to Consider

• Welisson Paiva has shown strong knockout power with 6 KO/TKO wins, while Dawid Smielowski also has a significant number of knockouts with 8 KO/TKO wins. Smielowski's recent form and experience might give him an edge.
• There is no previous head-to-head match between Welisson Paiva and Dawid Smielowski.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The fight is part of KSW 103, and external factors like crowd support may play a minimal role given the nature of MMA events.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, as a win could significantly boost their careers in the KSW lightweight division.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Dawid Smielowski: -145, Welisson Paiva: 110	Dawid Smielowski	★★★☆☆ 57%
Spread	Not specified	Dawid Smielowski	★★★☆☆ 53%
Over_under	Not specified	Over	★★★☆☆ 55%

Predicted Outcome

Dawid Smielowski is favored to win due to his experience and recent performance.

Predicted Score: Not applicable for MMA fights