Match Analysis: UMBC Retrievers vs Wagner Seahawks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 16, 2025
- Time: 5:00 PM UTC
- Location: Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena, Baltimore, MD
Game Overview
UMBC Retrievers (2-1) host the struggling Wagner Seahawks (0-3) in a non-conference college basketball matchup. UMBC enters as strong favorites off a 2-1 start, while Wagner seeks their first win of the season after dropping three consecutive games. The Retrievers have established themselves as a well-rounded team, while Wagner continues to search for offensive consistency.
Key Factors to Consider
- UMBC averages 80.0 PPG on 48.6% FG while holding opponents to 60.6 PPG on 42.2% FG, ranking 38th nationally in scoring and 4th in defense. Wagner averages just 62.5 PPG on 40.6% FG while allowing 78.8 PPG on 46.4% FG—a significant defensive liability. UMBC shoots 39.7% from three and 70.2% from free throw, while Wagner shoots 43.7% from deep but only 59.5% from the line. Wagner has lost six consecutive games against non-AP-ranked opponents, while UMBC has won at home, establishing home-court advantage.[1][2]
- No prior head-to-head history available between these programs.[2]
- No significant injuries reported for either team in available data.[1][2]
- The home team has won each of Wagner's last four games they've played in, suggesting Wagner struggles on the road. However, UMBC has lost six of its last seven day games against non-AP-ranked opponents, presenting a potential vulnerability. Wagner has won four of its last five day games, suggesting some contextual strength despite the overall 0-3 record.[2]
- UMBC is looking to maintain early-season momentum after a 2-1 start at home. Wagner desperately needs a win to avoid an 0-4 start and break their three-game losing streak, but the road environment and UMBC's defensive prowess make this an uphill battle.[1][2]
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | UMBC -300 / Wagner +240 | UMBC Retrievers | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | UMBC -6.5 -110 / Wagner +6.5 -110 | UMBC -6.5 | ★★★★☆ 71% |
| Over/under | Over 145.5 -115 / Under 145.5 -105 | Under 145.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | UMBC Retrievers -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 145.5 13% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 145.5 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
UMBC will win decisively at home. The Retrievers' superior offensive efficiency, elite home-court advantage, and dominant defense present a clear matchup advantage against a struggling Wagner team. While Wagner shows some day-game competence, UMBC's structural advantages (48.6% FG vs 40.6%, 80.0 PPG vs 62.5 PPG) are too significant to overcome, especially with the home-court edge.
Predicted Score: UMBC 78, Wagner 68