Match Analysis: UMBC Retrievers vs Wagner Seahawks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-16
- Time: 5:00 PM UTC
- Location: Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena, Baltimore, MD
Game Overview
The UMBC Retrievers host the Wagner Seahawks in a non-conference matchup on November 16, 2025. UMBC enters the game with a 2-1 record, coming off a narrow road win against Morgan State. Wagner is 0-3, having lost three consecutive road games, most recently a 63-61 defeat at Fordham. The game will be streamed on ESPN+ and is the tenth all-time meeting between the two programs, with UMBC holding a 6-3 edge historically.
Key Factors to Consider
- UMBC has shown offensive consistency, scoring 81 and 77 points in their last two games, but struggled defensively against Dayton. Wagner has been limited offensively, averaging just 74.7 points per game and allowing 78.3. Junior Eddie Placer has been Wagner's standout, averaging 15.5 PPG and scoring 20 in their last game. UMBC returns two starters and has added nine newcomers, indicating roster instability but also potential for growth.
- UMBC leads the all-time series 6-3. Wagner won the most recent meeting in 2003, 75-65, but UMBC has won the last two matchups. The Retrievers have a clear psychological edge, especially at home.
- No major injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates.
- UMBC is playing at home, which provides a significant advantage. Wagner is on a seven-game road swing, which could impact their energy and focus. The game is part of Wagner's challenging non-conference schedule, while UMBC is building momentum early in the season.
- UMBC is motivated to build on their recent win and establish a strong start to the season. Wagner is seeking their first win and will be eager to break their losing streak, but their road struggles may hinder their confidence.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | UMBC Retrievers: -300, Wagner Seahawks: 240 | UMBC Retrievers | β β β β β 85% |
| Spread | UMBC Retrievers: -6.5 -110, Wagner Seahawks: 6.5 -110 | UMBC Retrievers to cover | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over: 145.5 -115, Under: 145.5 -105 | Under | β β β β β 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | UMBC Retrievers -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 145.5 37% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 145.5 at 37% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 38.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
UMBC is favored to win this matchup due to their home advantage, better recent form, and historical dominance over Wagner. The game is expected to be competitive, but UMBC's offensive firepower and Wagner's road struggles suggest a Retrievers victory. The total points are likely to stay under the line, as Wagner's offense has been inconsistent and UMBC's defense has shown improvement.
Predicted Score: UMBC Retrievers 76, Wagner Seahawks 68