Match Analysis: VMI Keydets vs Jacksonville Dolphins – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 15, 2025
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: Lexington, VA
Game Overview
VMI Keydets (3-1) host Jacksonville Dolphins (1-2) in a non-conference college basketball matchup. VMI enters as a 1.5-point home favorite with a total of 151.5 points. Jacksonville is seeking to break a three-game losing streak while VMI looks to maintain early-season momentum despite a recent blowout loss to Missouri.
Key Factors to Consider
- VMI holds a 3-1 record with recent wins over Southern Indiana, UNC Greensboro, and The Citadel, though they suffered a 38-point loss to Missouri. Jacksonville is 1-2 with losses to High Point, Miami, and North Alabama, averaging 66.5 PPG while allowing 85.5 PPG—significant defensive vulnerabilities. VMI averages 73.3 PPG and allows 73.1 PPG, demonstrating defensive competence. Jacksonville's offense ranks 228th nationally in scoring while VMI ranks 194th.
- No recent head-to-head history is evident from available data. This represents a rare matchup between programs with limited recent meeting frequency.
- Jacksonville's Bradley Jr. (Guard) is listed as out with an undisclosed injury, removing a key rotation piece. No significant VMI injuries reported.
- Historical data suggests that games with over/under lines between 150.5-152.5 go over 51.2% of the time since 2020-2021. The line has remained stable at 151.5 with no movement detected.
- VMI benefits from home-court advantage and early-season momentum. Jacksonville faces urgency after dropping to 1-2 and will be motivated to avoid falling further behind. However, recent form significantly favors VMI.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | VMI -130 | Jacksonville +110 | VMI Keydets | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Spread | VMI -1.5 (-118) | Jacksonville +1.5 (-102) | VMI -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
| Over/under | Over 151.5 (-112) | Under 151.5 (-108) | Under 151.5 | ★★★☆☆ 64% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | VMI Keydets -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 151.5 4% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 151.5 at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 4.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
VMI Keydets should win comfortably over Jacksonville. The home team's superior defensive profile, consistent scoring, and Jacksonville's offensive limitations create a favorable matchup for the Keydets. Expect VMI to control tempo and win by 3-5 points, with the under hitting due to defensive pressure limiting pace.
Predicted Score: VMI 74, Jacksonville 70