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Match Analysis: Rogerio Bontorin vs Vitaliy Yakimenko – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-20
- Time: 5:00 PM UTC
- Location: Podpromie Hall, Rzeszów, Poland
Game Overview
The match between Rogerio Bontorin and Vitaliy Yakimenko is a Bantamweight division bout as part of KSW 110 on September 20, 2025. Bontorin, a 33-year-old Brazilian, faces 29-year-old Ukrainian Yakimenko. Both fighters are closely matched in height and reach, but Bontorin has significantly more professional experience and wins (17 vs. 9) and an undefeated record with 5 losses and no draws, compared to Yakimenko's 9-2-0 record. The fight is set to be a key matchup in KSW’s main card.
Key Factors to Consider
- Rogerio Bontorin has a record of 17-5-0 with 3 KOs, 7 submissions, and 3 decisions. Vitaliy Yakimenko has 9-2-0 with a similar distribution of finishes (3 KOs, 4 submissions, 2 decisions). Bontorin’s higher number of fights and wins suggests greater experience in high-level competition.
- This appears to be the first head-to-head meeting between Bontorin and Yakimenko, so no past direct encounter data is available.
- No current injuries reported for either fighter ahead of the bout.
- The fight is held in Rzeszów, Poland, which is neutral ground for both fighters. Both fighters made weight successfully with Bontorin at 125.5 lbs (57 kg) and Yakimenko slightly heavier at 128.5 lbs (58 kg).
- Both fighters are motivated to prove themselves in KSW’s Bantamweight division. Bontorin, with more experience, may have higher motivation to assert dominance and climb rankings, while Yakimenko will look to upset a more experienced opponent, boosting his rising career.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Rogerio Bontorin: -275, Vitaliy Yakimenko: +200 | Rogerio Bontorin to win | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Rogerio Bontorin: -1.5, Vitaliy Yakimenko: +1.5 | Bontorin -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: -110, Under 2.5 rounds: -110 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Home 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Based on the data, Rogerio Bontorin’s experience and balanced finishing ability give him the edge over Vitaliy Yakimenko. The prediction favors Bontorin to win by decision or submission, with a moderate to high confidence level.
Predicted Score: Rogerio Bontorin wins by submission in round 3