Match Analysis: Vasco da Gama vs Botafogo – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-12
- Time: 9:30 PM UTC
- Location: Likely São Januário Stadium (Vasco da Gama's Home Ground)
Game Overview
This Brazil Campeonato match features Vasco da Gama hosting Botafogo. Historically a balanced rivalry, both teams have close head-to-head records and competitive recent forms. The average goals per match between them hover around 2.5, showing moderate scoring tendencies.
Key Factors to Consider
- Vasco da Gama and Botafogo have roughly comparable recent performances. Vasco won 3 and lost 2 out of their last 6 meetings, averaging about 1.3 goals per match, while Botafogo showed stronger recent form with 4 wins out of 5 matches. Botafogo also demonstrates a higher Asian handicap win percentage and slightly better defensive record recently.
- Historically, across approximately 50 to 70 matches, Vasco da Gama holds a slight edge with 21-25 wins compared to Botafogo’s 19-26 wins, with many draws (12-20). Their matches generally produce around 2.56 goals on average. The results are well balanced, with no dominant team over the long term.
- No specific injury data available from the current sources; likely both squads are near full strength given lack of reported absences.
- The game is played at Vasco da Gama's home ground, which offers them a slight environmental and fan support advantage. No adverse weather or other factors reported.
- Botafogo is currently positioned better in the league table, suggesting potentially stronger motivation to maintain or extend their lead. Vasco may be motivated to improve their standings at home, which can increase competitiveness.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Botafogo: 115, Vasco da Gama: 250, Draw: 230 | Botafogo Win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Botafogo -0.25: -118, Vasco da Gama +25: -102 | Botafogo -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25: 108, Under 2.25: -128 | Under 2.25 goals | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Botafogo 8% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 3% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Botafogo at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Botafogo is favored to win due to better recent form, slightly stronger away performances, and better defensive stats, but Vasco da Gama's home advantage and balanced head-to-head record imply a close contest likely decided by a narrow margin.
Predicted Score: Botafogo 2 – 1 Vasco da Gama