Match Analysis: Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-01
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Allianz Parque
Game Overview
Palmeiras, playing at home in Allianz Parque, face Vasco da Gama in a Brazil Campeonato match where Palmeiras are favored heavily due to superior recent form, home advantage, and a strong historical record against Vasco.
Key Factors to Consider
- Palmeiras show strong home form and consistent scoring, with over 61% of their matches having more than 1.5 goals. Vasco da Gama struggle away with lower offensive output and poor form.
- In the last 10 encounters, Palmeiras won 7 times, Vasco has never won, and 3 matches ended in draws, showing clear dominance by Palmeiras.
- No significant injury concerns reported for Palmeiras, while Vasco has minor squad uncertainties but no key absences detailed.
- Home crowd at Allianz Parque expected to boost Palmeiras. No adverse external conditions reported. Palmeiras fined by CONMEBOL recently but no impact on matchday.
- Palmeiras motivated to maintain strong league standing and leverage home advantage; Vasco coached by Fernando Diniz, aiming to improve but under consistent pressure with modest recent results.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Palmeiras: -260, Vasco da Gama: 765, Draw: 373 | Palmeiras | ★★★★☆ 74% |
Spread | Palmeiras -1.25: -111, Vasco da Gama +1.25: -109 | Palmeiras -1.25 | ★★★☆☆ 66% |
Over/under | Over 2.5: -111, Under 2.5: -109 | Over 2.5 | ★★★☆☆ 61% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Palmeiras -10% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.5 3% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 2.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Palmeiras to win on the moneyline; Palmeiras to cover -1.25 on the spread; match to go over 2.5 goals
Predicted Score: 2-0