Match Analysis: UMBC Retrievers vs Wagner Seahawks – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: November 16, 2025
• Time: 5:00 PM UTC
• Location: Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena, Baltimore, MD

Game Overview

UMBC Retrievers (2-1) host the struggling Wagner Seahawks (0-3) in a non-conference college basketball matchup. UMBC enters as strong favorites off a 2-1 start, while Wagner seeks their first win of the season after dropping three consecutive games. The Retrievers have established themselves as a well-rounded team, while Wagner continues to search for offensive consistency.

Key Factors to Consider

• UMBC averages 80.0 PPG on 48.6% FG while holding opponents to 60.6 PPG on 42.2% FG, ranking 38th nationally in scoring and 4th in defense. Wagner averages just 62.5 PPG on 40.6% FG while allowing 78.8 PPG on 46.4% FG—a significant defensive liability. UMBC shoots 39.7% from three and 70.2% from free throw, while Wagner shoots 43.7% from deep but only 59.5% from the line. Wagner has lost six consecutive games against non-AP-ranked opponents, while UMBC has won at home, establishing home-court advantage.[1][2]
• No prior head-to-head history available between these programs.[2]
• No significant injuries reported for either team in available data.[1][2]
• The home team has won each of Wagner's last four games they've played in, suggesting Wagner struggles on the road. However, UMBC has lost six of its last seven day games against non-AP-ranked opponents, presenting a potential vulnerability. Wagner has won four of its last five day games, suggesting some contextual strength despite the overall 0-3 record.[2]
• UMBC is looking to maintain early-season momentum after a 2-1 start at home. Wagner desperately needs a win to avoid an 0-4 start and break their three-game losing streak, but the road environment and UMBC's defensive prowess make this an uphill battle.[1][2]

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	UMBC -300 / Wagner +240	UMBC Retrievers	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	UMBC -6.5 -110 / Wagner +6.5 -110	UMBC -6.5	★★★★☆ 71%
Over/under	Over 145.5 -115 / Under 145.5 -105	Under 145.5	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	UMBC Retrievers -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 145.5 13%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 145.5 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

UMBC will win decisively at home. The Retrievers' superior offensive efficiency, elite home-court advantage, and dominant defense present a clear matchup advantage against a struggling Wagner team. While Wagner shows some day-game competence, UMBC's structural advantages (48.6% FG vs 40.6%, 80.0 PPG vs 62.5 PPG) are too significant to overcome, especially with the home-court edge.

Predicted Score: UMBC 78, Wagner 68

Match Analysis: Morgan St Bears vs UMBC Retrievers – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: Tuesday, November 11, 2025
• Time: 11:00 PM UTC
• Location: Hill Field House, Baltimore, MD

Game Overview

UMBC Retrievers (1-1) travel to Baltimore to face Morgan State Bears (1-1) in an early-season matchup. Both teams are seeking momentum after splitting their opening games. UMBC comes off a 77-71 road loss to Dayton, while Morgan State secured a 101-77 home victory over Crown College. This is a low-seed matchup with limited historical significance, making it a value-hunting opportunity.

Key Factors to Consider

• UMBC averages 72.5 PPG on 43.8% shooting while allowing 65 PPG on 42.3% defense. Key scorer Jah'likai King leads with 18.5 PPG and 6.5 RPG (38.7% FG, 75% FT). DJ Armstrong Jr. contributes 13.5 PPG on efficient 60% shooting. The Retrievers excel from three-point range (40.7%) and at the free throw line (73.9%), but defensive perimeter issues were exposed at Dayton (allowing 10 three-pointers). Morgan State's offensive output (101 PPG vs. Crown College) suggests improved ball movement and scoring depth. UMBC's road performance remains a concern, with the team seeking its first away win.
• No significant head-to-head history provided in available data. This appears to be an early-season matchup without established patterns between these programs.
• No injury information reported for either team. Full roster availability assumed for both sides.
• UMBC is on a 6-of-8 game losing streak historically, suggesting consistency issues. Morgan State showed dominance at home against Crown College, indicating potential home-court advantage. The neutral site factor is minimal given Morgan State's home court. ESPN+ broadcast ensures reasonable visibility.
• Both teams are 1-1 and seeking their first definitive win trajectory. Morgan State has home court advantage and momentum from beating Crown College decisively. UMBC faces pressure to secure a road victory and prove capability away from home. Neither team faces existential pressure at this stage of the season.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Morgan St Bears +154 | UMBC Retrievers -192	UMBC Retrievers ML	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	Morgan St Bears +3.5 (-105) | UMBC Retrievers -3.5 (-115)	UMBC -3.5	★★★☆☆ 64%
Over/under	Over 166.5 (-114) | Under 166.5 (-110)	Under 166.5	★★★☆☆ 61%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	UMBC Retrievers -12%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 166.5 16%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 166.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

UMBC Retrievers upset Morgan State Bears in a moderate-scoring affair. Despite home court disadvantage, UMBC's superior three-point shooting (40.7% vs. implied ~35%), free throw efficiency (73.9%), and depth scoring (King, Armstrong, Valentine all in double figures) should overcome Morgan State's home advantage. Morgan State's defense allowed 101 PPG to a weak opponent, and UMBC's defensive efficiency (65 PPG allowed) is superior. The key X-factor: UMBC's perimeter shooting can exploit Morgan State's apparent defensive vulnerabilities.

Predicted Score: UMBC 71, Morgan State 67

Match Analysis: Dayton Flyers vs UMBC Retrievers – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-08
• Time: 7:00 PM UTC
• Location: UD Arena, Dayton, OH

Game Overview

Dayton Flyers host UMBC Retrievers in a non-conference matchup at UD Arena. Both teams enter 1-0, but Dayton is a clear favorite with a wide spread and heavy moneyline odds. The game is expected to be a showcase of Dayton's early-season dominance and UMBC's defensive promise against a much stronger opponent.

Key Factors to Consider

• Dayton opened with a dominant 88-48 win over Canisius, shooting 52.9% from the field, forcing 19 turnovers, and grabbing 33 rebounds. UMBC defeated Penn St.-York 74-53, showing solid defense but facing a much weaker opponent. Dayton’s efficiency, rebounding, and turnover control are significant advantages.
• No prior head-to-head history between Dayton and UMBC.
• No reported injuries for either team.
• Game is at UD Arena, a strong home court for Dayton. Early season, so depth and bench play may be inconsistent for both teams.
• Dayton is motivated to build on a strong start and establish non-conference momentum. UMBC is motivated to prove themselves against a higher-level opponent.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: -10000, away: 3000	Dayton Flyers	★★★★★ 95%
Spread	home: -23.5, away: 23.5	UMBC Retrievers +23.5	★★★★☆ 74%
Over/under	over: 152.5, under: 152.5	Under 152.5	★★★★☆ 78%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Dayton Flyers -4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 152.5 37%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 152.5 at 37% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 38.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Dayton will win comfortably, but the spread is too wide to confidently recommend. The total is likely to stay under due to UMBC’s defensive focus and Dayton’s potential for slower pace.

Predicted Score: Dayton 78, UMBC 70

Match Analysis: Bryant Bulldogs vs UMBC Retrievers – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: March 8, 2025
• Time: 9:00 PM UTC
• Location: Chace Athletic Center, Smithfield, Rhode Island

Game Overview

The Bryant Bulldogs, with a strong record of 20-11, face off against the UMBC Retrievers, who are 13-18, in the America East Tournament. Bryant has shown significant improvement, winning 14 of their last 16 games, while UMBC has struggled, losing eight of their last ten.

Key Factors to Consider

• Bryant is averaging 82.1 points per game and allowing 74.2, while UMBC averages 80.2 points and allows 78.6. Bryant's recent form and statistical advantage make them favorites.
• Bryant has won both meetings against UMBC this season, though the games were closely contested, decided by a combined eight points.
• Neither team has reported any injuries.
• The game is part of the America East Tournament, which could heighten motivation for both teams. Bryant's home advantage could also play a role.
• Both teams are highly motivated as they compete in the tournament, but Bryant's recent success and home advantage might give them an edge.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Bryant -1150, UMBC 725	Bryant	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Bryant -13.5 -115, UMBC +13.5 -105	UMBC +13.5	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over_under	Over 166 -110, Under 166 -110	Under	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Bryant is expected to win due to their strong recent performance and statistical advantages.

Predicted Score: Bryant 82, UMBC 75

Match Analysis: UMBC Retrievers vs Vermont Catamounts – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-03-01
• Time: 6:00 PM UTC
• Location: Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena

Game Overview

The UMBC Retrievers host the Vermont Catamounts in a crucial America East Conference matchup. UMBC recently broke Vermont's 23-game home winning streak in conference play, showcasing their potential. Vermont, however, has a strong overall record and will look to bounce back.

Key Factors to Consider

• UMBC has shown resilience with recent wins, including a notable victory over Vermont. Vermont, despite their strong record, faces a tough test after losing at home to UMBC.
• UMBC recently defeated Vermont, ending their home winning streak. This could give UMBC confidence, but Vermont will seek revenge.
• No significant injury reports are available for this matchup.
• Home advantage could play a role for UMBC, but Vermont's overall performance this season suggests they are capable of overcoming this.
• Both teams are highly motivated, with UMBC looking to build on recent success and Vermont seeking to avenge their loss.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	UMBC: +168, Vermont: -205	Vermont	★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread	UMBC: +4.5 -106, Vermont: -4.5 -114	UMBC +4.5	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over_under	Over: 142.5 -110, Under: 142.5 -110	Over	★★★☆☆ 58%

Predicted Outcome

Vermont is favored due to their overall performance, but UMBC's recent form and home advantage make them a competitive opponent.

Predicted Score: Vermont 79.4, UMBC 70.1

Match Analysis: UMBC Retrievers vs Albany Great Danes – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-02-27
• Time: 11:00 PM UTC
• Location: Not specified

Game Overview

The UMBC Retrievers host the Albany Great Danes in a competitive NCAAB matchup. UMBC has shown resilience in past games against Albany, but Albany's recent form suggests they are favorites to win.

Key Factors to Consider

• UMBC has struggled recently, losing their last game to Maine. Albany, however, won their last game against Binghamton, showcasing better form. UMBC's three-point shooting and field goal percentage are higher than Albany's.
• UMBC has a strong head-to-head record against Albany, winning seven of their last ten matchups. However, Albany's recent performance could challenge this trend.
• No specific injury reports are available for this matchup.
• Home advantage could play a role in UMBC's favor, but Albany's momentum might offset this.
• Both teams are motivated to secure a win, but Albany's recent success might give them an edge in confidence.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Albany: -114, UMBC: -105	Albany Great Danes	★★★☆☆ 55%
Spread	Albany: -1.5 -104, UMBC: 1.5 -118	UMBC +1.5	★★★☆☆ 52%
Over_under	Over: 155.5 -115, Under: 155.5 -105	Under 155.5	★★★☆☆ 58%

Predicted Outcome

Albany Great Danes are likely to win due to their recent form, but UMBC could keep the game close.

Predicted Score: UMBC 76, Albany 78

Match Analysis: UMBC Retrievers vs NJIT Highlanders – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-02-22
• Time: 5:00 PM UTC
• Location: UMBC Event Center

Game Overview

This matchup pits the UMBC Retrievers, known for their high-scoring offense, against the NJIT Highlanders, who focus on a strong defensive strategy. UMBC has won the last two meetings, but NJIT's defensive resilience could keep the game competitive.

Key Factors to Consider

• UMBC's offense has been potent, while NJIT's defense has been their strength. UMBC's ability to score quickly will challenge NJIT's defensive strategy.
• UMBC has won six of the last nine matchups, including the last two, both on the road. This trend suggests UMBC has an edge in recent encounters.
• No significant injury reports are available for either team, which could impact the game's dynamics.
• The home-court advantage for UMBC could play a significant role, as they tend to perform better at home.
• Both teams are motivated, but UMBC's recent losses might drive them to secure a win at home.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	NJIT Highlanders: 350, UMBC Retrievers: -465	UMBC Retrievers	☆☆☆☆☆ 1%
Spread	NJIT Highlanders: 9.5 -110, UMBC Retrievers: -9.5 -110	UMBC Retrievers	☆☆☆☆☆ 1%
Over_under	Over: 149.5 -110, Under: 149.5 -110	Under	☆☆☆☆☆ 1%

Predicted Outcome

UMBC Retrievers are likely to win due to their strong offense and home advantage.

Predicted Score: UMBC Retrievers 75, NJIT Highlanders 65

Match Analysis: UMass Lowell River Hawks vs UMBC Retrievers – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-02-20
• Time: 23:00 UTC
• Location: Costello Athletic Center

Game Overview

UMass Lowell River Hawks host UMBC Retrievers in a crucial America East matchup.

Key Factors to Consider

• UMass Lowell is strong at home, with a 12-3 record this season. They lead the league in field goal percentage and are second in scoring offense.
• UMass Lowell has a recent win over UMBC, showcasing their dominance.
• No significant injury reports available.
• Home advantage could significantly impact UMass Lowell's performance.
• Both teams are motivated to improve their conference standings.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-275 (UMass Lowell), 220 (UMBC)	UMass Lowell River Hawks	★★★★☆ 80%
Spread	-6.5 (UMass Lowell) -110, 6.5 (UMBC) -110	UMass Lowell River Hawks -6.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over_under	Over 162.5 -115, Under 162.5 -105	Over 162.5	★★★☆☆ 65%

Predicted Outcome

UMass Lowell River Hawks are favored to win.

Predicted Score: UMass Lowell River Hawks 84, UMBC Retrievers 78