Match Analysis: Tye Ruotolo vs Dante Leon – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-02
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Lumpinee Stadium, Bangkok, Thailand
Game Overview
This is a submission grappling world title trilogy match between reigning ONE welterweight champion Tye Ruotolo (7-0 in ONE) and challenger Dante Leon, with their head-to-head record tied 1-1. The bout serves as the co-main event of ONE Fight Night 31, marking their first meeting under ONE Championship rules.
Key Factors to Consider
- Ruotolo is undefeated in ONE Championship (7-0) with multiple submission wins. Leon is a two-time IBJJF world champion, though less tested under ONE's unique submission-only ruleset.
- Split 1-1 (Leon won their first meeting pre-ONE, Ruotolo won the second). This rubber match occurs under ONE's distinct rule set favoring aggressive submission hunting.
- Ruotolo recently recovered from a 2024 knee injury but has had 9 months to rehab. No recent injury reports for Leon.
- Ruotolo's imminent MMA debut plans (vs. Adrian Lee) could either motivate exceptional performance or create distraction, though he claims full focus on Leon.
- Leon explicitly states this represents 'the best era of submission grappling' and seeks to cement his legacy. Ruotolo aims to maintain his unbeaten ONE streak.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ruotolo -350 / Leon +225 | Ruotolo moneyline | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tye Ruotolo 128% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Tye Ruotolo at 128% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 56.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Ruotolo by submission (confidence: 75%) due to superior ONE-specific experience and rule set mastery. Leon's +225 odds represent value for an upset given his world-class pedigree.
Predicted Score: Submission victory for Ruotolo via choke/leg lock within regulation time (10 min).