Match Analysis: Calgary Stampeders vs Toronto Argonauts – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-18
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: McMahon Stadium
Game Overview
Calgary Stampeders face Toronto Argonauts in the CFL Week 20 finale, where Calgary seeks to secure a playoff spot after recent resurgence while Toronto, eliminated from playoffs, aims to end on a positive note.
Key Factors to Consider
- Calgary (9-7) snapped a four-game losing streak last week and now holds strong momentum to clinch postseason play. Toronto (5-12) has lost four consecutive games and will start backup QB Jarret Doege after Nick Arbuckle's injury.
- Calgary won the only previous matchup this season 29-19 at Toronto. Calgary holds a historical edge and a projected 78% win probability.
- Torontoβs starting QB Nick Arbuckle is out, replaced by Jarret Doege, who showed moderate effectiveness recently. Calgaryβs secondary is banged up but the offense remains stable.
- Game played at Calgaryβs McMahon Stadium, favoring the home team. Weather and field conditions expected typical for October in Calgary.
- Calgary highly motivated to secure playoff spot; Toronto motivated to avoid ending season on a losing streak but with no playoff implications.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Calgary -490 / Toronto +375 | Calgary Stampeders | β β β β β 78% |
Spread | Calgary -9.5 (-110) / Toronto +9.5 (-110) | Calgary Stampeders -9.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Over/under | Over 52.5 (-110) / Under 52.5 (-110) | Over 52.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Calgary Stampeders -6% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 52.5 15% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 52.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Calgary Stampeders to win outright on the moneyline, cover the -9.5 spread, and the game total to go over 52.5 points.
Predicted Score: Calgary Stampeders 31 – Toronto Argonauts 18