Match Analysis: Rockford IceHogs vs Texas Stars – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-16
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Rockford IceHogs Home Arena
Game Overview
The Rockford IceHogs host the Texas Stars in an AHL matchup. Rockford has struggled recently at home with four straight regulation losses, while Texas enters motivated and slightly favored by bookmakers.
Key Factors to Consider
- Rockford IceHogs have lost their last four home games in regulation, showing poor form. Texas Stars have been more consistent away with a strong defensive showing, often limiting opponents to under 1.5 goals in the first period.
- Historically, Rockford leads with 44 wins to Texasβs 35 in 85 encounters. The last meeting on Oct 18, 2025, was a close 2-1 victory for Rockford at home.
- No significant injuries reported that would drastically affect team performance for either side.
- No notable external factors such as travel fatigue or extreme weather affecting the matchup.
- Texas Stars appear motivated to capitalize on Rockford's recent home weaknesses, aiming to continue their positive away trend and extend Rockford's losing streak.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Rockford IceHogs: +143, Texas Stars: -215 | Texas Stars | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | Rockford IceHogs: -182, Texas Stars: +133 | Texas Stars -1.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 5.5: -109, Under 5.5: -124 | Under 5.5 | β β β ββ 66% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Texas Stars -9% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 5.5 5% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 5.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Texas Stars to win outright by at least 2 goals, with the total goals likely to go under 5.5.
Predicted Score: Texas Stars 3 – 1 Rockford IceHogs