The San Diego Padres host the St. Louis Cardinals in a National League matchup following the Cardinals' 8-5 victory over the Padres on August 2, ending San Diego's six-game win streak. The game looms as a crucial battle as both teams seek momentum in the 2025 season.
Key Factors to Consider
The Padres entered the series on a strong six-game winning streak but were defeated 8-5 by the Cardinals, who showed resilience with key hits including Masyn Winnβs two-run double. Both teams demonstrated strong offensive capabilities; however, recent form favors the Cardinals with their powerful comeback in the previous game.
Recent head-to-head shows the Cardinals outperforming the Padres in the last encounter with an 8-5 win. Historically, matchups between these teams have been competitive, but the Cardinalsβ recent rally might give them psychological and tactical advantage.
Current available data does not specify any major injuries impacting either team for this match. Both teams are expected to field their competitive lineups.
No significant external conditions such as weather or venue disruption reported. The game is held at the Padresβ home ground which could provide a home advantage.
The Padres seek to reset and regain confidence at home after their streak was snapped, whereas the Cardinals are motivated to capitalize on their momentum and secure consecutive wins.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
San Diego Padres: -188, St. Louis Cardinals: 158
San Diego Padres to win
β β β ββ 65%
Spread
San Diego Padres: -1.5 @ 106, St. Louis Cardinals: +1.5 @ -128
San Diego Padres -1.5
β β β ββ 60%
Over/under
Over 8: -115, Under 8: -105
Over 8 runs
β β β ββ 58%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
San Diego Padres -5%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 8 3%
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 8 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the Cardinalsβ recent victory and momentum against the Padres, combined with competitive odds favoring the Padres on moneyline due to home advantage, a close game is expected. However, the Padres might edge out a win by a narrow margin if they adjust their pitching strategy effectively.
Predicted Score: San Diego Padres 6 – 4 St. Louis Cardinals
The St. Louis Cardinals (55-54) host the Miami Marlins (51-55) in a National League interdivision matchup at Busch Stadium. Both teams are hovering around .500, with the Cardinals slightly ahead in overall record and fighting for playoff positioning. Miami has shown some recent strength but lost the previous day to the Cardinals 5-0. Key pitching matchups include Miles Mikolas (STL) and Cal Quantrill (MIA).
Key Factors to Consider
The Cardinals have a modest winning record (55-54) and are playing with some momentum having beaten the Marlins 5-0 in their last meeting. The Marlins hold a losing record (51-55) and have struggled to maintain consistent offensive output. Pitching-wise, Mikolas has a 6-7 record with a 4.94 ERA and solid strikeout numbers, while Quantrill is 3-8 with a 5.05 ERA.
The recent head-to-head encounter favored the Cardinals with a dominant 5-0 win on July 29, 2025. Historically, matchups between these teams are competitive, but the Cardinals tend to have a slight edge at home.
No major injury updates reported for either team impacting this matchup. Both teams appear to have their core players available including key hitters Brendan Donovan and Kyle Stowers.
The game is played at Busch Stadium, a pitcher-friendly park which may suppress scoring. Weather conditions are typical for late July in St. Louis with no reported adverse weather expected.
The Cardinals are motivated to maintain their playoff positioning within the NL Central, while the Marlins seek to gain ground in the NL East standings. The Cardinalsβ recent win adds confidence heading into this game.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Miami Marlins: 120, St. Louis Cardinals: -142
St. Louis Cardinals win
β β β β β 72%
Spread
Miami Marlins: +1.5 at -170, St. Louis Cardinals: -1.5 at 140
Cardinals -1.5
β β β ββ 68%
Over/under
Over 8.5: -115, Under 8.5: -105
Under 8.5 runs
β β β ββ 60%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
St. Louis Cardinals 1%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 8.5 17%
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
St. Louis Cardinals to win by at least 2 runs, continuing their recent dominance at home against Miami.
Predicted Score: St. Louis Cardinals 5 – Miami Marlins 2
The St. Louis Cardinals (54-52) host the San Diego Padres (56-49) in this MLB matchup at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals will start Michael McGreevy (2-1, 3.49 ERA), while the Padres counter with Stephen Kolek (3-5, 4.28 ERA). Both teams have comparable season records with a slight edge on the road for the Padres and a strong home performance for the Cardinals.
Key Factors to Consider
The Cardinals are 31-21 at home showing solid pitching and defense, while the Padres hold a 25-31 record on the road but maintain a better overall record. McGreevy's 3.49 ERA and 17 strikeouts in 28.1 innings suggest reliable starting pitching. Kolek has a higher ERA of 4.28 with fewer strikeouts relative to innings pitched, indicating more vulnerability on the mound.
Recent series show competitive games between the Padres and Cardinals, with no decisive dominance. Current series stands at 3 games, this being game 4, indicating familiarity and strategic adjustments.
No notable injuries reported impacting the starting lineup or key players on either side at this time.
Playing at Busch Stadium favors the Cardinals given their superior home record. Weather and other external conditions have no reported adverse effects impacting play.
Both teams are battling for postseason positioning with the Padres holding a slight edge in standings, likely fueling competitive intensity. Cardinals playing at home boosts morale and focus.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
San Diego Padres: +113, St. Louis Cardinals: -124
St. Louis Cardinals win
β β β ββ 63%
Spread
San Diego Padres: +1.5 -180, St. Louis Cardinals: -1.5 +157
St. Louis Cardinals -1.5
β β β ββ 58%
Over/under
Over: 9 -115, Under: 9 -105
Under 9 runs
β β β ββ 55%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
St. Louis Cardinals 13%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 9 7%
π₯ Best Value Pick: St. Louis Cardinals at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Considering home advantage, pitching matchup, and better team form at home, the Cardinals are favored to win a close game.
Predicted Score: St. Louis Cardinals 5 – San Diego Padres 3