Match Analysis: St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-13
- Time: 6:16 PM UTC
- Location: Busch Stadium
Game Overview
The St. Louis Cardinals host the Atlanta Braves in a crucial MLB matchup. The Cardinals are slightly above .500 with a 50-46 record, while the Braves struggle at 42-52. The pitching duel features veteran Cardinals starter Sonny Gray against Braves rookie Davis Daniel making only his second MLB start. Atlanta has shown resilience in this series, having won the first two games, but the Cardinals have home advantage and a better season record.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Cardinals are currently struggling with a 3-7 record in their last 10 games but have a superior overall season record. The Braves have been resilient within this series but have a weaker overall season performance and a heavily leaned-on bullpen.
- Sonny Gray holds a mixed record against the Braves, going 1-1 with a 4.06 ERA in his last five starts. The Braves have managed to win the first two games of this series on the road.
- No major injury concerns reported for either team impacting starting pitchers or key players ahead of this game.
- The game is played at Busch Stadium, giving the Cardinals home field advantage. The Braves will head home after this game for an interleague series against the Yankees.
- The Cardinals aim to stop their recent slump and protect home turf, while the Braves seek to complete a surprising road series sweep and build momentum before returning home.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Atlanta Braves +130, St. Louis Cardinals -154 | St. Louis Cardinals | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Spread | Atlanta Braves +1.5 (-162), St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+134) | St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | Over 8.5 (-105), Under 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 runs | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | St. Louis Cardinals 2% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8.5 12% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
St. Louis Cardinals to win moneyline, cover spread, and total runs to stay under 8.5.
Predicted Score: Cardinals 4, Braves 2