Match Analysis: Ryan Loder vs Azamat Bekoev – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: May 3, 2025
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Wells Fargo Arena, Des Moines, IA
Game Overview
Middleweight bout featuring Ryan 'Man of Steel' Loder (8-1-0) vs Azamat 'Iron' Bekoev (19-3-0). Both fighters are coming off successful UFC debuts, with Loder showcasing wrestling pedigree and Bekoev demonstrating higher striking volume (6.85 vs 6.16 sig. strikes/min).
Key Factors to Consider
- Bekoev holds significant edge in professional experience (19 wins vs 8). Loder's wrestling background could neutralize Bekoev's striking advantage if he implements grappling-heavy approach.
- First meeting between fighters.
- No reported injuries pre-fight.
- Event takes place in Loder's home country (USA vs Russia) but no clear venue advantage specified.
- Critical matchup for establishing position in UFC middleweight division, with both fighters seeking second consecutive UFC win.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bekoev -410 | Loder +320 | Azamat Bekoev | ★★★★☆ 73% |
| Spread | Bekoev -3.5 (-205) | Loder +3.5 (+150) | Bekoev -3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 (-115) | Under 2.5 (-115) | Over 2.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Azamat Bekoev -6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 18% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bekoev by decision (60% confidence) – superior striking volume (6.85/min vs 6.16) and defensive metrics suggest he can outpoint Loder if kept standing. Potential for Loder submission upset if fight hits mat.
Predicted Score: Bekoev via unanimous decision (29-28)