Match Analysis: Ismail Naurdiev vs Ryan Loder – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-22
- Time: 4:45 PM UTC
- Location: UFC Qatar, Qatar
Game Overview
The middleweight bout between Ismail Naurdiev and Ryan Loder at UFC Qatar on November 22, 2025, features two fighters with contrasting styles and records. Naurdiev is a more experienced fighter with a 24-8-0 record and an orthodox stance, known for solid striking defense and balanced offense. Loder, standing taller at 6'2" with a southpaw stance and a record of 8-2-0, is a more aggressive striker landing more significant strikes per minute with higher accuracy but lower defensive percentages.
Key Factors to Consider
- Naurdiev has a longer MMA career with more fights and experience inside the Octagon, averaging longer fight durations (15:00 minutes) and strong strike defense (64%). Loder is a newer but highly effective competitor with higher striking volume and accuracy (5.76 strikes/min at 71% accuracy), though he allows more significant strikes per minute (2.51) and has less strike defense (50%). Loder's striking rush could challenge Naurdiev's defense.
- No prior head-to-head matchups exist between Ismail Naurdiev and Ryan Loder, making this their first encounter.
- No publicly reported injuries for either fighter ahead of the bout.
- The fight takes place at UFC Qatar, a neutral venue with conditions expected to be standard for both fighters. Loder is part of Team Alpha Male, leveraging strong team support and motivation as the Season 32 winner of The Ultimate Fighter. No other external issues reported.
- Naurdiev aims to re-establish momentum following mixed recent results, while Loder seeks to capitalize on his rising trajectory and notable striking advantages. Both fighters bring high motivation for a career-defining win in a prime UFC event.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ismail Naurdiev: -135, Ryan Loder: +114 | Ismail Naurdiev to win | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Spread | Ismail Naurdiev: -3.5 (110), Ryan Loder: +3.5 (-145) | Ismail Naurdiev to win by more than 3.5 points | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: -110, Under 2.5 rounds: -120 | Over 2.5 rounds (fight goes past halfway point) | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ismail Naurdiev -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 15% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Naurdiev's experience, strong defensive striking, and composure over longer fights versus Loder's higher volume, aggressive striking and reach advantage, the bout is expected to be competitive but likely favors Naurdiev by decision or late finish. Loder's finishing power or pressure could sway an upset, but Naurdiev's consistency is predicted to prevail.
Predicted Score: Ismail Naurdiev wins by decision or late round finish, with fight lasting over 2.5 rounds