Match Analysis: Reinier de Ridder vs Brendan Allen – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-19
- Time: 1:45 AM UTC
- Location: UFC Fight Night (venue not specified)
Game Overview
Middleweight main event featuring Reinier de Ridder, a physically imposing southpaw with elite grappling, against Brendan Allen, a younger, durable orthodox striker with solid submissions and reach disadvantage.
Key Factors to Consider
- de Ridder holds a strong recent form with a notable 5-round split decision win over Robert Whittaker in July. Allen has a solid record but fewer recent marquee wins.
- No prior head-to-head bouts reported. Styles contrast with de Ridder's grappling and Allen's striking-submission hybrid game.
- No public injury reports for either fighter; both appear healthy entering the fight.
- Fight taking place in a standard UFC event environment with no significant external factors disadvantaging either fighter; de Ridder slightly older at 35 vs 29 but with better championship experience.
- de Ridder motivated by defending his rising middleweight status; Allen aiming to cement a top contender position but viewed as underdog.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | de Ridder: -198, Allen: +164 | Reinier de Ridder | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | de Ridder -9.5 (-120), Allen +9.5 (-110) | Reinier de Ridder -9.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 3.5 (+105), Under 3.5 (-135) | Under 3.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Reinier de Ridder -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 3.5 1% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 3.5 at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Reinier de Ridder to win by decision
Predicted Score: de Ridder wins via unanimous decision after 5 rounds