Match Analysis: Reinier de Ridder vs Brendan Allen – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-18
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: Rogers Arena, Vancouver, Canada
Game Overview
Reinier de Ridder steps into a high-stakes main event against Brendan Allen at UFC Vancouver after Anthony Hernandez withdrew due to injury. Allen is the replacement and will face Dricus du Plessis, a former double champ, in a matchup with significant title shot ramifications.
Key Factors to Consider
- Brendan Allen is coming off a hard-fought decision win over Marvin Vettori, snapping a two-fight skid, and is ranked #11. De Ridder enters the UFC for the first time with a decorated grappling background but no prior Octagon experience. The leap in competition for de Ridder is significant, while Allen’s activity and proven divisional performance are noteworthy[1][2].
- No prior head-to-head meeting, but Allen has lost only to top-10 opponents while De Ridder’s record is mostly outside the UFC.
- No known injuries for either fighter. The main change is Allen stepping in on short notice after Hernandez withdrew[1][2].
- De Ridder’s UFC debut may bring nerves or excitement; Allen is game-tested in the Octagon and under less pressure as the underdog. The change in opponent may have rattled fight prep for de Ridder[1][2].
- Allen has a chance to leap into Top 5 with a win and erase the narrative of only losing to top contenders. De Ridder wants to make a statement in his UFC debut and validate his champion pedigree.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | {Brendan Allen: +135, Reinier de Ridder: -155} | Brendan Allen to win | ★★★☆☆ 61% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Brendan Allen 43% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Brendan Allen at 43% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 32.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
This is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup. De Ridder’s grappling is elite, but Allen’s well-rounded game, UFC-level experience, and recent form suggest he can neutralize De Ridder’s best weapon. Allen’s recent wins have shown steady improvement, and he enters with momentum—valuable against a UFC debutant. De Ridder’s lack of UFC experience and the short-notice adjustment tilt this toward Allen as a live underdog.
Predicted Score: Brendan Allen by Decision