Match Analysis: Arnold Jimenez vs Rafael do Nascimento – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-22
• Time: 11:00 PM UTC
• Location: Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA) event, Lemoore, California

Game Overview

Arnold Jimenez (12-3) faces Rafael do Nascimento (10-3) in a competitive Legacy Fighting Alliance matchup. Rafael is the betting favorite with strong recent form and more consistent wins, while Jimenez has shown resilience and finishing power.

Key Factors to Consider

• Rafael do Nascimento holds a recent edge with steady victories and superior finishing rates. Jimenez has been competitive but with more recent losses against higher-tier opponents.
• No prior recorded fights between Arnold Jimenez and Rafael do Nascimento, making this their first encounter.
• No current injury reports on either fighter; both are expected to be at full strength.
• Fight takes place in Lemoore, California, neutral ground with no discernible home advantage.
• Both fighters are motivated; Rafael looks to solidify his rising status, while Arnold aims to prove he can compete against top-tier opposition.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: +185, away: -275	Rafael do Nascimento	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	home: +1.5 (-150), away: -1.5 (+130)	Rafael do Nascimento -1.5	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	over: -110, under: -110	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 62%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Rafael do Nascimento -11%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Rafael do Nascimento at -11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Rafael do Nascimento to win via moneyline

Predicted Score: Rafael do Nascimento wins by submission in round 2

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Arnold Jimenez vs. Rafael do Nascimento Prediction	Rafael do Nascimento Win	-275	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)
Eduardo Henrique vs. Devon Lozej Prediction	Eduardo Henrique Win	-220	★★★★☆ 72% (72%)
Richie Miranda vs. Ilay Barzilay Prediction	Richie Miranda Win	-200	★★★★☆ 72% (72%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +198

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $59.5

Match Analysis: Rafael do Nascimento vs Arnold Jimenez – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-07-26
• Time: 11:00 PM UTC
• Location: Tachi Palace Casino Resort

Game Overview

A bantamweight bout between Rafael do Nascimento (10-3) and Arnold Jimenez (12-3) at LFA 213. Both fighters have solid records with Jimenez holding a slight edge in recent performances.

Key Factors to Consider

• Rafael do Nascimento is coming off a strong showing, maintaining a 10-3 record, focusing on striking and grappling with knockout power. Arnold Jimenez is 12-3 with solid wins but with slightly less knockout power and less recent finishes.
• No recorded previous head-to-head matchup between the two fighters, making this a fresh tactical contest.
• No reported injuries or withdrawals for either fighter leading into the bout.
• The fight takes place at Tachi Palace, a venue with which do Nascimento has had notable success, potentially providing a slight home advantage.
• Both fighters are motivated to ascend the LFA bantamweight rankings; do Nascimento’s recent knockout highlight and Jimenez’s 12 wins suggest strong desire from both.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Rafael do Nascimento -330, Arnold Jimenez +270	Rafael do Nascimento	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Unavailable exact numerical spread odds, implied line approximately -1.5 rounds favoring do Nascimento	Rafael do Nascimento -1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds -115, Under 2.5 rounds -115	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Rafael do Nascimento -2%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Moneyline: Rafael do Nascimento to win. Spread: Rafael do Nascimento -1.5 rounds. Over/Under: Under 2.5 rounds.

Predicted Score: Rafael do Nascimento wins via TKO in round 2