Phil De Fries vs. Arkadiusz Wrzosek Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Phil De Fries vs Arkadiusz Wrzosek – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-06-14
  • Time: 2:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Ergo Arena, Gdańsk, Poland

Game Overview

KSW 107 headline bout: Phil De Fries defends his heavyweight title against Polish challenger Arkadiusz Wrzosek. This is a five-round contest for the heavyweight championship, with De Fries as the current champion and Wrzosek looking to win in his home country.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Phil De Fries is a seasoned champion with strong wrestling and submission skills, and a proven track record in KSW. Arkadiusz Wrzosek is a local favorite who has shown knockout power and a height and reach advantage (201 cm height, 210 cm reach vs De Fries' 194 cm height, 201 cm reach). Both fighters are in their early to mid-30s, in their physical prime for heavyweights.
  • No direct head-to-head history. De Fries has more championship experience in KSW, while Wrzosek has fewer high-profile bouts.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter ahead of this bout.
  • Fight is in Poland, giving Wrzosek a local crowd advantage. De Fries is used to fighting abroad and has experience with hostile environments.
  • De Fries is defending his title and legacy in KSW. Wrzosek is highly motivated to capture the belt in front of hometown fans.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Phil De Fries: -200, Arkadiusz Wrzosek: 160 Phil De Fries by decision ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Phil De Fries -4%
Spread N/A
Over/Under N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Phil De Fries at -4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Phil De Fries is the betting favorite for good reason: he has superior experience in five-round championship fights and a well-rounded game. However, Wrzosek's size, power, and home crowd could make this more competitive than the odds suggest. The likely outcome is a decision win for De Fries, but Wrzosek has a real chance if he can land early and avoid prolonged grappling exchanges.

Predicted Score: Phil De Fries wins by unanimous decision (49-46, 48-47, 48-47) over Arkadiusz Wrzosek.


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