Match Analysis: NC State Wolfpack vs East Carolina Pirates – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-28
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Wayne Day Family Field at Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh, North Carolina
Game Overview
NC State Wolfpack enter as strong favorites against East Carolina Pirates, hosting the season opener with a 14-point spread. NC State had a below-average defensive performance last season, while East Carolina showed a slightly stronger offensive output and better bowl performance. However, NC State has home-field advantage and a more favorable motivation coming into the game.
Key Factors to Consider
- NC State finished 6-7 last season, scoring 28.5 PPG (rank 62) and conceding 30.2 PPG (rank 103). East Carolina was 8-5, scored 32 PPG (rank 34) and allowed 27.3 PPG (rank 83). East Carolina's defense is expected to regress, while NC State's offense is steady but defense weak.
- NC State has historically been the stronger team, with East Carolina losing three of the last four Atlantic matchups against NC State. NC State has won the last seven season openers, showing good starts.
- No significant injuries reported for either team prior to kickoff.
- Game is at NC Stateβs home stadium with good weather conditions (74Β°F, no rain, low wind), supporting a high-tempo game environment.
- NC State motivated to improve on last seasonβs bowl loss; East Carolina seeking upset but likely less confident on the road as 14-point underdogs.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | NC State Wolfpack: -535, East Carolina Pirates: 400 | NC State Wolfpack | β β β β β 85% |
Spread | NC State Wolfpack: -14 -108, East Carolina Pirates: +14 -112 | NC State Wolfpack -14 | β β β β β 75% |
Over/under | Over: 61.5 -110, Under: 61.5 -110 | Over 61.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | NC State Wolfpack -4% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 61.5 24% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 61.5 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: NC State to win. Spread: NC State -14. Over/Under: Over 61.5 points.
Predicted Score: NC State Wolfpack 35 – East Carolina Pirates 21