Match Analysis: Modestas Bukauskas vs Paul Craig – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-06
- Time: 8:45 PM UTC
- Location: Accor Arena, Paris, France
Game Overview
The upcoming UFC Fight Night 258 light heavyweight bout features Modestas Bukauskas vs Paul Craig. Bukauskas, a 31-year-old Lithuanian-British striker standing 6'3" with a 78" reach, has been in strong form with four wins in his last five fights. Paul Craig, a 37-year-old Scottish orthodox fighter also 6'3" tall but with a 76" reach, is coming off a three-fight skid including a no-contest. Bukauskas is favored to win, largely due to his recent performances and superior striking efficiency.
Key Factors to Consider
- Bukauskas lands 3.26 significant strikes per minute at 42% accuracy and defends 51% of strikes aimed at him. Craig lands 2.54 strikes per minute at 45% accuracy but absorbs fewer strikes per minute (3.00 vs 4.07). Bukauskas' recent winning momentum contrasts with Craig's downturn.
- No previous fights between Bukauskas and Craig, making this their first encounter.
- No reported injuries affecting either fighter currently.
- Bukauskas benefits from positive betting market momentum, with odds shortening steadily. The fight being held at a high-profile venue (Accor Arena, Paris) adds prominence but no known external disruptions reported.
- Bukauskas is eager to prove himself as a legitimate contender in the division and motivated by his recent successful run. Craig aims to halt his losing streak and regain standing, bringing veteran experience but possibly less confidence.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Modestas Bukauskas: -355, Paul Craig: +280 | Modestas Bukauskas | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Modestas Bukauskas: -3.5 -230, Paul Craig: +3.5 +165 | Modestas Bukauskas wins by more than 3.5 points (dominant victory) | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5 rounds: -140, Under 1.5 rounds: +110 | Over 1.5 rounds (fight lasting beyond midway of round 2) | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Modestas Bukauskas -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 1.5 3% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Modestas Bukauskas is predicted to win by KO/TKO given his superior recent form, striking output, and favorable betting market sentiment.
Predicted Score: Modestas Bukauskas wins via TKO/KO in round 2 or late round 1