Match Analysis: Modestas Bukauskas vs Paul Craig – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-06
- Time: 8:45 PM UTC
- Location: Accor Arena, Paris, France
Game Overview
A light heavyweight showdown at UFC Paris between Modestas Bukauskas, known for his striking power and recent strong form, and Paul Craig, a veteran grappler with a mixed recent record. Bukauskas is heavily favored on the moneyline reflecting his momentum and striking superiority.
Key Factors to Consider
- Modestas Bukauskas arrives with 4 wins in his last 5 fights, landing 3.26 significant strikes per minute with a 42% accuracy, while absorbing 4.07 strikes per minute. Paul Craig is on a skid with 3 losses in last 4, landing 2.54 strikes per minute at 45% accuracy and absorbing fewer shots (3.00 per min) but with lower defensive efficiency (43%).
- No prior head-to-head matchups recorded between Bukauskas and Craig.
- No publicly reported injuries to either fighter leading into the bout.
- Bukauskas is favored by the market with odds reflecting increased confidence from bettors. The fight takes place in Europe which is neutral ground for both – Bukauskas (Lithuanian origin) and Craig (UK).
- Bukauskas is on an upswing and aims to solidify his status in the light heavyweight division, while Craig needs a win to halt his losing streak and remain relevant, adding desperation but also pressure.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -355, away: +280 | Modestas Bukauskas | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | home: -3.5 -230, away: +3.5 165 | Modestas Bukauskas -3.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | over: 1.5 -140, under: 1.5 110 | Under 1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Modestas Bukauskas -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 37% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 37% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 33.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Modestas Bukauskas wins by KO/TKO
Predicted Score: Modestas Bukauskas wins by TKO in Round 2