Match Analysis: Oumar Sy vs Brendson Ribeiro – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-06
- Time: 6:30 PM UTC
- Location: Accor Arena, Paris, France
Game Overview
The highly anticipated UFC Light Heavyweight bout between Oumar Sy and Brendson Ribeiro will take place at UFC Paris. Sy holds a strong 11-1 record and stands 6'4" with an 83" reach, while Ribeiro, known as "The Gorilla," has a 17-8 record, stands 6'3" with an 81" reach. Both fighters use an orthodox stance. The fight is scheduled for 3 rounds and expected to feature contrasting styles emphasizing significant strike accuracy and defense.
Key Factors to Consider
- Oumar Sy demonstrates superior striking efficiency, connecting on 50% of his 3.68 significant strike attempts per minute and absorbing only 1.81 per minute, while defending 70% of strikes. Brendson Ribeiro connects on 42% of his 3.26 strike attempts, absorbs 4.04 strikes per minute, and defends 52% of strikes. Sy's defensive metrics and striking accuracy give him a clear edge in overall performance metrics.
- No records indicate a previous meeting between Sy and Ribeiro, making this the first head-to-head clash between these fighters.
- No current injury reports or health concerns have been reported for either fighter ahead of this matchup.
- The fight takes place in Paris, France, Oumar Sy's home country, potentially giving him home crowd advantage and reduced travel fatigue. The event being a UFC Fight Night card could motivate Sy to perform strongly on home soil.
- Oumar Sy, fighting at home, looks to continue his near-flawless record and climb higher in the Light Heavyweight division. Brendson Ribeiro seeks to upset the local favorite with his experience of 25 professional fights, showing resilience and trying to leverage underdog status.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Oumar Sy: -455, Brendson Ribeiro: 350 | Oumar Sy | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Spread | Oumar Sy -3.5: -245, Brendson Ribeiro +3.5: 175 | Oumar Sy -3.5 | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5 rounds: -140, Under 1.5 rounds: 110 | Over 1.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Oumar Sy -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 1.5 11% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Oumar Sy is favored to win by decision or late stoppage due to his superior strike accuracy, defense, and home advantage. Ribeiro's high strike absorption rate makes him vulnerable to Sy's precise striking output.
Predicted Score: Oumar Sy wins by unanimous decision after three rounds