Match Analysis: St. Louis City SC vs Orlando City SC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-25
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Energizer Park, St. Louis, MO
Game Overview
The MLS regular season match between St. Louis City SC and Orlando City SC will take place at Energizer Park. St. Louis City SC, currently 14th in the Western Conference, face Orlando City SC, who are 5th in the Eastern Conference. This is their first meeting since August 2023 when Orlando won 2-1. St. Louis has scored fewer goals (17) and conceded more (26) compared to Orlando's 32 goals and 22 conceded. Orlando also leads significantly in shots and shots on target, with 11.94 and 5.24 per game respectively compared to St. Louis's 9.12 and 4.12. Both teams have notable players like Martin Ojeda for St. Louis and Luis Muriel for Orlando, with Orlando showing stronger clean sheet and defensive stats.
Key Factors to Consider
- Orlando City SC has a stronger offensive record and better defensive stats, ranking higher overall in MLS with more goals scored and fewer conceded. St. Louis City SC has struggled defensively and offensively, reflected by their lower conference standing and goal difference.
- The teams last met in August 2023, with Orlando City SC winning 2-1. No recent matches since then suggest limited direct recent form between the two sides.
- No specific injury info was available from the search results for either team for this match.
- The match is played at St. Louis' home ground, Energizer Park, which could provide them with some home advantage. Orlando travels from the Eastern Conference side. Weather or other external conditions were not specified.
- Orlando City SC is currently higher in the table, likely pushing for playoff positioning, potentially giving them greater motivation. St. Louis City SC may be motivated to improve their mid-season standing and upset a stronger opponent at home.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Orlando City SC: 125, St. Louis City SC: 195, Draw: 275 | Orlando City SC Win | β β β ββ 65% |
| Spread | Orlando City SC: -0.25 -102, St. Louis City SC: 25 -118 | Orlando City SC -0.25 | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 3: 102, Under 3: -122 | Over 3 Goals | β β β ββ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Orlando City SC 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 3 5% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 3 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 4.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Orlando City SC is favored to win given their offensive and defensive superiority, recent form, and higher league standing. The game is likely to be competitive but leans towards an Orlando victory with a moderate goal tally.
Predicted Score: 1-2