Match Analysis: Phoenix Suns vs New Orleans Pelicans – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-11
- Time: 2:10 AM UTC
- Location: PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ
Game Overview
The Phoenix Suns host the New Orleans Pelicans in a contest where the Suns are favored given their stronger recent performance and home advantage. The Suns are currently 5-5 overall and 4-1 at home, on a three-game home winning streak, while the Pelicans stand at 2-7 with a recent loss streak and poor road form. The Suns have won their last head-to-head matchup convincingly.
Key Factors to Consider
- Phoenix Suns have won three straight home games, beating the LA Clippers recently with strong scoring from Devin Booker (21 points, 10 rebounds) and consistent defense. The Pelicans have lost 14 of their last 16 games, recently falling to the Spurs despite a 41-point effort by Trey Murphy III. Pelicans average 109.1 points per game but concede 121.3, indicating defensive issues.
- Recent head-to-head favors the Suns, who won 125-108 in their last matchup. Historically, the Suns have generally outperformed the Pelicans with better margins, including a close prior loss for the Pelicans in December 2024 (126-124).
- No specific injury data available in the sources; key players like Devin Booker and Trey Murphy III are expected to play.
- The Suns' home court advantage at PHX Arena and healthier team confidence from home winning streak weigh in their favor. The Pelicans face travel fatigue and have struggled with consistency on the road.
- The Suns aim to maintain momentum and improve their .500 record, while the Pelicans seek a much-needed turnaround amid a tough season, but their low win percentage and recent form dampen their motivation.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | New Orleans Pelicans: 240, Phoenix Suns: -295 | Phoenix Suns win | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | New Orleans Pelicans: 8 -106, Phoenix Suns: -8 -114 | Phoenix Suns to cover -8 spread | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over: 228.5 -112, Under: 228.5 -108 | Over 228.5 points | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Phoenix Suns 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 228.5 14% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 228.5 at 14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Phoenix Suns to win comfortably and cover the -8 spread with a final score around 121-111.
Predicted Score: 121-111