Match Analysis: New Mexico Lobos vs Alabama St Hornets – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-27
• Time: 2:00 AM UTC
• Location: The Pit, Albuquerque, NM

Game Overview

This NCAA Men's Basketball matchup features the New Mexico Lobos hosting the Alabama State Hornets. The Lobos are a strong Mountain West team with a 4-2 record, while Alabama State, from the SWAC, is 3-4. The game is expected to be a significant test for Alabama State, who have struggled against higher-level competition this season. New Mexico has shown resilience and scoring ability, but Alabama State has demonstrated a tendency to put up points in spurts, especially in the first half.

Key Factors to Consider

• New Mexico Lobos have shown mixed results recently, including a close win over Mississippi State and a loss to Texas Tech. Their recent games have seen them score between 57 and 82 points, with a tendency to play at a moderate pace. Alabama State Hornets have been inconsistent, with blowout losses to teams like Vanderbilt and Colorado, but also a high-scoring win over IUPUI. Notably, Alabama State has scored over 70 points in the first half in 61% of their last 13 games, indicating a fast-starting offense.
• There is no recent head-to-head history between these teams. The only recorded meeting was on December 29, 1999, when New Mexico won. The lack of direct competition makes recent form and team trends more critical for prediction.
• No significant injuries have been reported for either team as of the latest updates.
• The game is being played at The Pit, a venue known for its home-court advantage for New Mexico. The altitude and crowd support could impact Alabama State's performance, especially in the later stages of the game.
• New Mexico will be motivated to maintain their strong home record and build momentum for conference play. Alabama State will be looking to prove themselves against a higher-level opponent and potentially boost their national profile.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

New Mexico Lobos are expected to win this game comfortably, given their superior record, home advantage, and the recent struggles of Alabama State against stronger competition. However, Alabama State's ability to score quickly in the first half could keep the game competitive early on.

Predicted Score: New Mexico Lobos 82 – 63 Alabama St Hornets

Match Analysis: Air Force Falcons vs New Mexico Lobos – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: Saturday, November 22, 2025
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Falcon Stadium, Colorado Springs, Colorado

Game Overview

The New Mexico Lobos (7-3, 4-2 Mountain West) travel to face the Air Force Falcons (3-7, 2-4 Mountain West) in a critical Mountain West matchup. New Mexico arrives as 3.5-point road favorites, riding a four-game winning streak after narrowly defeating Colorado State 20-17. Air Force returns home following a disappointing 26-16 loss to UConn. This matchup features a fascinating clash of styles: New Mexico's elite 18th-ranked rushing defense squares off against Air Force's No. 3 rushing offense in the nation. The Lobos have significantly overperformed expectations this season and sit near the top of the Mountain West standings, while the Falcons have struggled to find consistency despite their ground-heavy offensive approach.

Key Factors to Consider

• New Mexico has emerged as a surprising contender this season with a 7-3 record and currently sits on a four-game winning streak. The Lobos demonstrate balanced offensive capability (234.2 passing yards, 150.8 rushing yards per game) but more impressively showcase elite defensive run-stopping (18th-ranked rushing defense allowing only 105.8 rushing yards per game). Air Force relies almost exclusively on their ground game, ranking 3rd nationally in rushing offense with 290+ yards rushing in their last contest alone. However, their defensive third-down conversion rate (135th nationally, allowing over 50% conversion rate) represents a significant vulnerability. Air Force's 3-7 record reflects inconsistency, though they've won two of their last four games.
• Air Force holds a commanding 2-1 advantage in their last three head-to-head matchups against New Mexico. More concerning for the Lobos, Air Force has covered the spread in both recent meetings while exceeding the total in each contest. Historically, New Mexico has been outscored by 45 points collectively in their last three encounters with the Falcons, suggesting Air Force possesses a significant edge in this rivalry despite their weaker overall record this season.
• No specific injury information is available from the provided sources. Both teams appear to be at full strength for this matchup, though detailed injury reports should be confirmed closer to game time.
• Weather conditions at kickoff show clear skies with 43°F temperatures and 0% precipitation, providing optimal playing conditions. The game will be televised on CBS Sports Network with broad accessibility. Public betting sentiment heavily favors New Mexico with 94% of moneyline bets placed on the Lobos, though only 6% of total money wagered backs Air Force, indicating sharp money may be positioning on the underdog.
• New Mexico enters with significant momentum and playoff implications, seeking to maintain their winning streak and consolidate their position near the top of the Mountain West. Air Force plays at home with motivation to bounce back from consecutive losses and prove their season isn't slipping away entirely. The Falcons' home-field advantage at Falcon Stadium provides tangible motivation, though their inconsistent play this season raises questions about execution.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

New Mexico's superior overall record, four-game winning streak, and elite rushing defense create a compelling case for an away victory. However, Air Force's home-field advantage, dominant rushing offense, historical success against New Mexico, and the vulnerability of New Mexico's road record present meaningful uncertainty. The Lobos' ability to establish early offensive rhythm and force Air Force into passing situations will determine the outcome. New Mexico's elite rushing defense must contain Air Force's ground game; if successful, the Lobos' superior all-around roster should prevail. Conversely, if Air Force establishes their running game early and controls time of possession, they can exploit New Mexico's defensive vulnerability to chunk plays and potentially upset the favored Lobos.

Predicted Score: New Mexico Lobos 28, Air Force Falcons 24

Match Analysis: New Mexico Lobos vs Mississippi St Bulldogs – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-22
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, MO

Game Overview

The New Mexico Lobos (3-1) will host the Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-1) in the NCAA basketball matchup at the T-Mobile Center. Both teams are near .500 records this season with New Mexico riding a two-game losing streak and Mississippi State recovering from a recent heavy loss to Kansas State. New Mexico is favored to win at home due to a deeper and more talented roster despite Mississippi State's competitive play.

Key Factors to Consider

• New Mexico has a 3-1 record but recently lost two in a row, including a 12-point loss to Nebraska. Mississippi State is 2-1 with a recent 21-point loss to Kansas State but has players like Josh Hubbard putting up solid scoring numbers. New Mexico shows strong defensive numbers allowed (67.6 PPG) compared to Mississippi State (81.0 PPG allowed).
• Limited recent direct comparisons available, but New Mexico has had a better overall season performance and home court advantage. Recent games show mixed results, with New Mexico earning wins in some matchups against Missouri Valley or lower-ranked teams.
• Mississippi State's forward Brandon Walker is questionable with an undisclosed injury, which may impact Bulldogs' lineup and depth. New Mexico reports no significant injuries affecting key players.
• The game is played at a neutral site, T-Mobile Center, but considered a home game for New Mexico, giving them a slight venue advantage. Betting public is split evenly at 50% on each side, indicating uncertainty.
• Both teams need a win to secure a winning record early in the season, increasing motivation. New Mexico likely has stronger motivation to rebound from a two-game skid and capitalize on home court advantage.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

New Mexico Lobos are predicted to win, likely covering the spread due to their stronger roster, defense, and home court advantage. The total points are expected to stay under the 154.5 line given recent defensive trends and pace.

Predicted Score: New Mexico Lobos 76 – Mississippi St Bulldogs 68

Match Analysis: Nebraska Cornhuskers vs New Mexico Lobos – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-20
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, MO

Game Overview

Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-0) face the New Mexico Lobos (3-1) in a neutral-site matchup at the T-Mobile Center. Nebraska enters as clear favorites, with a strong offensive record and recent high-scoring wins. New Mexico has shown resilience against non-ranked opponents but faces a tough test against a Cornhuskers team that has covered the spread in 3 of their last 5 games. The betting market reflects Nebraska's dominance, with a spread of -8.5 and a total set at 152.5 points.

Key Factors to Consider

• Nebraska is averaging 89.0 points per game, shooting 49.8% from the field, and has won each of their last 12 night games against non-conference opponents. They are strong defensively, forcing turnovers and limiting opponents' possessions. New Mexico averages 75.0 points per game, shooting 44.5% from the field and 29.3% from three-point range. They have won 23 of their last 28 games against non-AP-ranked opponents but have struggled on the road recently, losing their last away game to New Mexico State.
• No recent head-to-head data is available for this matchup, but both teams have strong records against non-conference and non-ranked opponents.
• No significant injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates.
• The game is being played at a neutral venue, which may slightly reduce Nebraska's home-court advantage. The T-Mobile Center is a major venue, and the atmosphere could influence both teams' performances.
• Nebraska is motivated to maintain their undefeated record and prove themselves against a competitive New Mexico team. New Mexico is looking to bounce back from their recent road loss and establish themselves as a strong non-conference team.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

Nebraska is favored to win and cover the spread. The Cornhuskers' offensive efficiency and defensive strength give them a significant edge. New Mexico's ability to win against non-ranked opponents adds some uncertainty, but Nebraska's recent form and home-court advantage at a neutral site make them the likely victors.

Predicted Score: Nebraska 78, New Mexico 70

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Match Analysis: New Mexico St Aggies vs New Mexico Lobos – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: November 15, 2025
• Time: 2:00 AM UTC
• Location: Pan American Center, Las Cruces, NM

Game Overview

The New Mexico Lobos travel to Las Cruces to face their archrival New Mexico State Aggies in a non-conference matchup. The Lobos enter with a perfect 3-0 record and bring a strong defensive profile under new head coach Eric Olen, who developed UC San Diego into an elite defensive team. The Aggies are 2-0 but have only faced Division II competition (Adams State and New Mexico Highlands) at home, winning by margins of 11 and 16 points respectively. This represents a significant step up in competition for New Mexico State. The Lobos are undefeated away from home (0-0 record) and have demonstrated offensive balance with six players scoring in double digits in recent games.

Key Factors to Consider

• New Mexico Lobos: 3-0 overall, averaging 77.3 points per game with 6.3 three-pointers made. Jake Hall leads the team with 12.3 points per game. The Lobos average 11 steals per game and have won their last three games convincingly. New Mexico State Aggies: 2-0 overall with a perfect 2-0 home record, but both victories came against inferior competition. Jemel Jones led the Aggies with 24 points in their last game (74-58 win over New Mexico Highlands). The Aggies rank No. 139 on KenPom's efficiency chart, which would likely be lower if D2 games were included.
• New Mexico State defeated New Mexico 89-83 last season. However, this season presents a different dynamic with New Mexico's new coaching staff and improved defensive capabilities. New Mexico has won each of its last eight Saturday games, a significant trend favoring the Lobos.
• No injury information available from provided sources.
• New Mexico has won the first half in each of its last 10 games, demonstrating strong early-game execution. New Mexico State has won each of its last eight games following a home win and won the first half in each of its last six home games. However, New Mexico State has lost four of its last five games against Mountain West Conference opponents, suggesting vulnerability against higher-quality competition.
• New Mexico Lobos are motivated to prove their legitimacy under a new coaching regime and establish themselves early in the season. New Mexico State Aggies face their first true test of the season and will be playing at home where they've been successful, but they're stepping into significantly more challenging competition.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

New Mexico Lobos will emerge victorious by a narrow margin. The Lobos' superior defensive profile, coaching quality, and proven performance against legitimate opponents outweigh New Mexico State's home-court advantage. New Mexico's elite defense and consistent first-half execution should control the tempo and limit the Aggies' scoring opportunities. The Lobos' road success and Saturday-game winning streak are additional confidence factors.

Predicted Score: New Mexico Lobos 74, New Mexico State Aggies 69

Match Analysis: New Mexico Lobos vs Colorado State Rams – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-15
• Time: 8:00 PM UTC
• Location: University Stadium, Albuquerque, New Mexico

Game Overview

The New Mexico Lobos (6-3) host the Colorado State Rams (2-7) in a Mountain West Conference matchup. New Mexico enters the game with momentum after winning their last three games, while Colorado State is struggling with a three-game losing streak and poor offensive output. The Lobos are heavy favorites with a 14.5-point spread advantage and better recent form at home.

Key Factors to Consider

• New Mexico Lobos have a strong season record (6-3) and have won all of their last five home games, scoring at least 33 points in their last two. Colorado State Rams have a disappointing 2-7 record, losing their last three games by a combined wide margin and struggling to both score and defend effectively.
• Historically, favorites in this matchup have covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 games. Colorado State has lost each of its last nine November games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams. New Mexico has dominated recent home games against conference opponents.
• No significant injury information is currently available affecting either team for this game.
• The game is played at New Mexico's home stadium, which favors the Lobos. Weather or other external issues are not currently noted as impactful.
• New Mexico looks motivated to secure their fourth straight win and improve their conference standing, while Colorado State is under pressure to break their losing streak and avoid a further morale drop.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

New Mexico Lobos are strongly favored to win and cover the 14.5-point spread due to superior performance, home advantage, and Colorado State’s offensive struggles.

Predicted Score: New Mexico Lobos 35 – Colorado State Rams 17

Match Analysis: New Mexico Lobos vs UC Riverside Highlanders – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-12
• Time: 2:00 AM UTC
• Location: The Pit, Albuquerque, NM

Game Overview

The New Mexico Lobos host the UC Riverside Highlanders in an NCAA basketball matchup with both teams undefeated at 2-0. New Mexico has started strong with dominant home performances, while UC Riverside has shown solid offense and elite defense on the road. The Lobos enter as heavy favorites and are expected to control the game from tip-off.

Key Factors to Consider

• New Mexico averages a 40-point margin over 2 games (scoring 150, allowing 110) with 2 home wins, demonstrating strong offense (80.5 PPG, 46.0% FG) and robust defense (70.6 PPG allowed). UC Riverside also stands at 2-0, scoring 162 points and allowing 119 (43 PPG margin), with strong defense limiting opponents to around 59.5 PPG over the season. Key players for UC Riverside include Marqui Worthy (18.5 PPG) and Osiris Grady (18 PPG, 7 RPG).
• No direct recent head-to-head data is available indicating prior meetings; however, New Mexico's home advantage and program strength historically favor them.
• No current injuries or significant player absences reported for either team.
• Game location at New Mexico's home court, The Pit, provides a notable advantage for the Lobos. Public betting heavily favors New Mexico (89% bets and money), reflecting confidence in their dominance.
• Both teams are undefeated through early season games, aiming to maintain momentum. UC Riverside looks to prove competitiveness against a top MW Conference opponent, while New Mexico seeks to reinforce their status as favorites and build early-season confidence.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

New Mexico is heavily favored to win convincingly, leveraging home court advantage and superior team metrics. UC Riverside may keep the score respectable but unlikely to cover the large spread.

Predicted Score: New Mexico Lobos 81 – UC Riverside Highlanders 60

Match Analysis: New Mexico Lobos vs UT-Arlington Mavericks – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-08
• Time: 9:00 PM UTC
• Location: The Pit, Albuquerque, New Mexico

Game Overview

The New Mexico Lobos host the UT-Arlington Mavericks in an early season Mountain West vs. WAC interconference basketball game. Both teams enter the game with 1-0 records. New Mexico starts with a strong home-court advantage with a history of dominance at The Pit, while UT-Arlington looks to build momentum after a strong opening win.

Key Factors to Consider

• New Mexico Lobos showed strong performance in their season opener with a decisive 76-54 victory, exhibiting balanced scoring and strong rebounding led by players like Jake Hall and Tomislav Buljan. UT-Arlington also impressed, posting a dominant 91-40 home win in their season opener, showing offensive prowess but facing a tougher challenge on the road.
• In their last meeting in 2023, New Mexico edged UT-Arlington 82-80 at home. Historically, New Mexico has won all of its last 12 games at The Pit against non-ranked opponents, and UT-Arlington has struggled away, losing four of their last five against similar non-ranked teams.
• No significant injuries have been reported for either team ahead of this matchup.
• The game is played at New Mexico's home arena, The Pit, which is known for a strong home atmosphere favoring the Lobos. Weather and travel do not appear to be factors.
• New Mexico, looking to continue their strong home dominance and improve on last year's successful campaign, appears highly motivated. UT-Arlington aims to gain experience and build confidence against a tougher opponent in a hostile environment.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

New Mexico Lobos are favored to win comfortably, supported by strong home-court advantage, historical dominance, and balanced team performance in early season play.

Predicted Score: New Mexico Lobos 78 – UT-Arlington Mavericks 63

Match Analysis: New Mexico Lobos vs East Texas A&M Lions – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-06
• Time: 2:00 AM UTC
• Location: The Pit, Albuquerque, NM

Game Overview

The New Mexico Lobos open their 2025-26 season at home against the East Texas A&M Lions at The Pit. The Lobos, undergoing a complete roster and staff overhaul with no returning players or coaches, are coming off a split preseason with a loss at Washington State and a win against Northern Arizona. East Texas A&M enters the game after a dominant 119-60 victory over Arlington Baptist and is in their fourth season as a Division I program after finishing 11th last season in the Southland Conference.

Key Factors to Consider

• New Mexico Lobos showed resilience in preseason despite being a new team, led offensively by Antonio Chol averaging 15.5 points in exhibition. East Texas A&M Lions demonstrated strong offensive capability in their season opener, scoring 119 points with a high shooting efficiency (63% FG, 39.4% 3PT) and strong rebounding (42 RPG).
• There is no recorded recent head-to-head history between New Mexico Lobos and East Texas A&M Lions in Division I basketball, as East Texas A&M transitioned to Division I only four seasons ago and the teams have limited overlapping schedules.
• No specific injury reports are available for either team prior to this opening game.
• The game is held at The Pit, a challenging home venue for visiting teams. New Mexico Lobos benefit from home court advantage with strong fan support and energy, highlighted by halftime entertainment and pregame events to motivate the home side.
• New Mexico Lobos are motivated to make a strong start under a new coaching staff and roster, aiming to validate their preseason Mountain West fifth-place prediction. East Texas A&M Lions look to continue their momentum from a dominant season-opening win and gain respect in their early Division I years.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

New Mexico Lobos to win comfortably due to superior Division I experience, home court advantage, and deeper team development, despite facing a high-scoring East Texas A&M offense.

Predicted Score: New Mexico Lobos 82 – East Texas A&M Lions 60