Match Analysis: Tampa Bay Lightning vs New Jersey Devils – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-11
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Amalie Arena, Tampa Bay, FL
Game Overview
The Tampa Bay Lightning host the New Jersey Devils in an early-season NHL clash. Both teams have shown inconsistency in recent form, with the Lightning slightly preferred at home but the Devils looking to leverage their motivation and home crowd edge to offset Tampa Bay's home advantage.
Key Factors to Consider
- Lightning have lost 3 of their last 5 games and are 0-1 so far this season, showing some offensive struggles. Devils have also struggled, losing 4 of their last 5 but holding a narrow edge in recent head-to-head matchups.
- In recent encounters, the Lightning have been moderately competitive but have had trouble covering the spread. Devils have shown the ability to score and keep games close at Tampa Bay's arena.
- Tampa Bay is missing Juho Lammikko (out) and has Evgenii Dadonov listed as questionable. New Jersey has no major injury concerns listed, giving them a slight depth advantage.
- The Lightning enjoy full home crowd support at Amalie Arena, but public betting heavily favors Tampa Bay (-130 moneyline). Sharp betting action is less clear, with some expert models forecasting a tighter game.
- New Jersey is motivated to bounce back from a poor start to the season and prove their competitiveness on the road, while Tampa Bay aims to defend home ice after a lukewarm start.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Tampa Bay Lightning -130, New Jersey Devils +105 | Tampa Bay Lightning | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 +167, New Jersey Devils +1.5 -205 | Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 6.5 +107, Under 6.5 -127 | Under 6.5 | β β β ββ 63% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Tampa Bay Lightning 6% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | N/A |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bet on Tampa Bay Lightning moneyline victory, Tampa Bay to cover -1.5 puck line, and the game to go under 6.5 total goals.
Predicted Score: 3-1 Tampa Bay Lightning