Match Analysis: Modestas Bukauskas vs Paul Craig – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-06
• Time: 8:45 PM UTC
• Location: Accor Arena, Paris, France

Game Overview

The upcoming UFC Fight Night 258 light heavyweight bout features Modestas Bukauskas vs Paul Craig. Bukauskas, a 31-year-old Lithuanian-British striker standing 6'3" with a 78" reach, has been in strong form with four wins in his last five fights. Paul Craig, a 37-year-old Scottish orthodox fighter also 6'3" tall but with a 76" reach, is coming off a three-fight skid including a no-contest. Bukauskas is favored to win, largely due to his recent performances and superior striking efficiency.

Key Factors to Consider

• Bukauskas lands 3.26 significant strikes per minute at 42% accuracy and defends 51% of strikes aimed at him. Craig lands 2.54 strikes per minute at 45% accuracy but absorbs fewer strikes per minute (3.00 vs 4.07). Bukauskas' recent winning momentum contrasts with Craig's downturn.
• No previous fights between Bukauskas and Craig, making this their first encounter.
• No reported injuries affecting either fighter currently.
• Bukauskas benefits from positive betting market momentum, with odds shortening steadily. The fight being held at a high-profile venue (Accor Arena, Paris) adds prominence but no known external disruptions reported.
• Bukauskas is eager to prove himself as a legitimate contender in the division and motivated by his recent successful run. Craig aims to halt his losing streak and regain standing, bringing veteran experience but possibly less confidence.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Modestas Bukauskas: -355, Paul Craig: +280	Modestas Bukauskas	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Modestas Bukauskas: -3.5 -230, Paul Craig: +3.5 +165	Modestas Bukauskas wins by more than 3.5 points (dominant victory)	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds: -140, Under 1.5 rounds: +110	Over 1.5 rounds (fight lasting beyond midway of round 2)	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Modestas Bukauskas -4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Modestas Bukauskas is predicted to win by KO/TKO given his superior recent form, striking output, and favorable betting market sentiment.

Predicted Score: Modestas Bukauskas wins via TKO/KO in round 2 or late round 1

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
William Gomis vs. Robert Ruchala Prediction	William Gomis Win	-258	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Paul Craig Prediction	Modestas Bukauskas Win	-355	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)
Oumar Sy vs. Brendson Ribeiro Prediction	Oumar Sy -3.5	-245	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +150

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $50.09

Match Analysis: Modestas Bukauskas vs Ion Cutelaba – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: May 10, 2025
• Time: 10:00 PM UTC
• Location: Not specified

Game Overview

The upcoming match between Modestas Bukauskas and Ion Cutelaba is part of the UFC 315 prelims in the Light Heavyweight division. Both fighters have a strong background in Mixed Martial Arts, with Bukauskas having a record of 17-6 and Cutelaba with 19-10-1. The fight is expected to be highly competitive, given their similar skill levels and recent performances.

Key Factors to Consider

• Modestas Bukauskas has a UFC record of 5-4, while Ion Cutelaba stands at 8-9-1. This suggests that Cutelaba has more experience in the UFC arena.
• There is no documented head-to-head matchup between Modestas Bukauskas and Ion Cutelaba prior to their UFC 315 fight.
• No major injuries have been reported for either fighter.
• Mental preparation and recent form could play significant roles in this match.
• Both fighters are motivated to win to improve their rankings in the Light Heavyweight division.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Ion Cutelaba: -112, Modestas Bukauskas: -108	Ion Cutelaba	★★★☆☆ 55%
Spread	Ion Cutelaba: -3.5 100, Modestas Bukauskas: 3.5 -140	Modestas Bukauskas +3.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over: 1.5 -154, Under: 1.5 120	Over 1.5	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Modestas Bukauskas -2%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 24%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 36.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given the close odds, this fight could go either way. However, Ion Cutelaba's UFC experience might give him a slight edge.

Predicted Score: Ion Cutelaba wins via unanimous decision or late stoppage.

Match Analysis: Modestas Bukauskas vs Raffael Cerqueira – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: February 22, 2025
• Time: 11:15 PM UTC
• Location: Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, Washington

Game Overview

Modestas Bukauskas and Raffael Cerqueira face off in a light heavyweight bout at UFC Fight Night 252. Bukauskas, known as 'The Baltic Gladiator,' has a record of 16-6 and recently secured a submission victory. Cerqueira, 'The Lion,' holds an 11-1 record but suffered a quick knockout loss in his UFC debut.

Key Factors to Consider

• Modestas Bukauskas has a more extensive UFC experience with a recent submission win, while Raffael Cerqueira boasts an impressive record but struggled in his UFC debut.
• This is the first meeting between the two fighters.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The fight takes place at the Climate Pledge Arena, which may not significantly impact either fighter.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Bukauskas seeking to extend his UFC win streak and Cerqueira aiming to bounce back from his debut loss.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-285 for Modestas Bukauskas, +230 for Raffael Cerqueira	Modestas Bukauskas	★★★★☆ 70%
Spread	Not available	Not available	Not available
Over_under	Over 1.5 rounds: -140, Under 1.5 rounds: +110	Over 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Modestas Bukauskas is favored to win due to his experience and recent performance.

Predicted Score: Decision victory for Modestas Bukauskas