Match Analysis: Modestas Bukauskas vs Paul Craig – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-06
• Time: 8:45 PM UTC
• Location: Accor Arena, Paris, France

Game Overview

A light heavyweight showdown at UFC Paris between Modestas Bukauskas, known for his striking power and recent strong form, and Paul Craig, a veteran grappler with a mixed recent record. Bukauskas is heavily favored on the moneyline reflecting his momentum and striking superiority.

Key Factors to Consider

• Modestas Bukauskas arrives with 4 wins in his last 5 fights, landing 3.26 significant strikes per minute with a 42% accuracy, while absorbing 4.07 strikes per minute. Paul Craig is on a skid with 3 losses in last 4, landing 2.54 strikes per minute at 45% accuracy and absorbing fewer shots (3.00 per min) but with lower defensive efficiency (43%).
• No prior head-to-head matchups recorded between Bukauskas and Craig.
• No publicly reported injuries to either fighter leading into the bout.
• Bukauskas is favored by the market with odds reflecting increased confidence from bettors. The fight takes place in Europe which is neutral ground for both – Bukauskas (Lithuanian origin) and Craig (UK).
• Bukauskas is on an upswing and aims to solidify his status in the light heavyweight division, while Craig needs a win to halt his losing streak and remain relevant, adding desperation but also pressure.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: -355, away: +280	Modestas Bukauskas	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	home: -3.5 -230, away: +3.5 165	Modestas Bukauskas -3.5	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	over: 1.5 -140, under: 1.5 110	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Modestas Bukauskas -4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 37%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 37% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 33.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Modestas Bukauskas wins by KO/TKO

Predicted Score: Modestas Bukauskas wins by TKO in Round 2

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Oumar Sy vs. Brendson Ribeiro Prediction	Oumar Sy Win	-455	★★★★☆ 79% (79%)
Shauna Bannon vs. Sam Hughes Prediction	Sam Hughes Win	-340	★★★★☆ 77% (77%)
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Paul Craig Prediction	Modestas Bukauskas Win	-355	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +102

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $40.46

Match Analysis: Modestas Bukauskas vs Ion Cutelaba – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-10
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: UFC Event Venue (exact venue not specified)

Game Overview

The UFC 315 prelims feature a Light Heavyweight bout between Modestas Bukauskas and Ion Cutelaba. Both fighters have solid UFC experience with Bukauskas holding a 5-4 UFC record and Cutelaba with an 8-9-1 UFC record. Bukauskas, known for his well-rounded striking and grappling, aims to secure a finish, while Cutelaba brings aggressive style and resilience. The fight is expected to be competitive and likely to be decided by striking exchanges and the ability to implement game plans under pressure.

Key Factors to Consider

• Bukauskas has recovered from a three-fight skid and appears focused with improved strategy and composure, demonstrated in recent interviews. Cutelaba maintains an aggressive approach but has a slightly less consistent record in UFC bouts, indicating volatility in performance.
• This matchup appears to be their first meeting, with no prior head-to-head record available. Both fighters have comparable UFC experience but differ slightly in fighting style and recent form.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to this bout as of the latest updates.
• The fight is on UFC prelims, possibly affecting the fighters' motivation to make a strong impression for a potential main card rise. Modestas Bukauskas has publicly expressed motivation to earn a bonus-worthy performance, which may give him an edge.
• Bukauskas is highly motivated to capitalize on recent progress and move closer to a significant UFC milestone. Cutelaba is known for his fighting spirit but may face pressure to improve his UFC record.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Modestas Bukauskas: -108, Ion Cutelaba: -112	Modestas Bukauskas	★★★☆☆ 58%
Spread	Modestas Bukauskas +3.5: -140, Ion Cutelaba -3.5: 100	Modestas Bukauskas +3.5	★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds: -154, Under 1.5 rounds: 120	Over 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Modestas Bukauskas -99%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 -99%

⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.

Predicted Outcome

Modestas Bukauskas is predicted to win, likely by a finish given his stated game plan and recent confidence. The fight may go to a late stoppage or decision if Cutelaba withstands early aggression.

Predicted Score: Bukauskas wins by TKO/KO or decision in Round 2 or 3

Match Analysis: Modestas Bukauskas vs Raffael Cerqueira – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: February 22, 2025
• Time: 11:15 PM UTC
• Location: Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, Washington

Game Overview

Modestas Bukauskas and Raffael Cerqueira face off in a light heavyweight bout at UFC Fight Night 252. Bukauskas, known as 'The Baltic Gladiator,' has a record of 16-6 and recently secured a submission victory. Cerqueira, 'The Lion,' holds an 11-1 record but suffered a quick knockout loss in his UFC debut.

Key Factors to Consider

• Modestas Bukauskas has a more extensive UFC experience with a recent submission win, while Raffael Cerqueira boasts an impressive record but struggled in his UFC debut.
• This is the first meeting between the two fighters.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The fight takes place at the Climate Pledge Arena, which may not significantly impact either fighter.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Bukauskas seeking to extend his UFC win streak and Cerqueira aiming to bounce back from his debut loss.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-285 for Modestas Bukauskas, +230 for Raffael Cerqueira	Modestas Bukauskas	★★★★☆ 70%
Spread	Not available	Not available	Not available
Over_under	Over 1.5 rounds: -140, Under 1.5 rounds: +110	Over 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Modestas Bukauskas is favored to win due to his experience and recent performance.

Predicted Score: Decision victory for Modestas Bukauskas