Match Analysis: Missouri Tigers vs Alabama Crimson Tide – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-11
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field, Columbia, Missouri
Game Overview
A highly competitive top-15 NCAA football matchup between the No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide (4-1) and No. 14 Missouri Tigers (5-0), contested at Missouri's home field. Alabama enters as a narrow favorite with a spread of -3.5 and a total of 51.5 points, reflecting expectations of a close, high-scoring game.
Key Factors to Consider
- Alabama boasts the 21st-ranked scoring defense and an efficient passing attack led by Ty Simpson (13 TDs, 1 INT). Missouri, undefeated at 5-0 with the 16th-ranked scoring defense, relies on efficient QB Beau Pribula (75.8% completion). Both teams have potent offenses and defenses, reflected in multiple recent games hitting the over.
- Alabama leads the all-time series 6-2 and has won the last six meetings, indicating psychological and tactical dominance historically, but recent forms show Missouri capable of close contests.
- No significant injury reports impact starting quarterbacks or key defensive players for either team, suggesting both will compete at full strength.
- Playing at Memorial Stadium provides Missouri with home-field advantage and motivation, but Alabamaβs proven resilience on the road and experience in high-pressure games neutralize this edge to some extent.
- Both teams are highly motivated, likely targeting College Football Playoff contention; Missouri aims to maintain its unbeaten season, while Alabama looks to reinforce dominance and secure top ranking.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Alabama: -154, Missouri: 130 | Alabama | β β β ββ 68% |
Spread | Alabama: -104, Missouri: -118 | Alabama -3.5 | β β β ββ 63% |
Over/under | Over: -110, Under: -110 | Over 51.5 | β β β ββ 67% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Alabama Crimson Tide -4% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 51.5 15% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 51.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Alabama to win outright (moneyline), cover the -3.5 spread, and the game to go over 51.5 points
Predicted Score: Alabama 34 – Missouri 21