Match Analysis: Alabama Crimson Tide vs Missouri Tigers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-20
- Time: 2:30 PM UTC
- Location: Hoover Metropolitan Stadium, Hoover, Alabama
Game Overview
The Alabama Crimson Tide face the Missouri Tigers in the 2025 Southeastern Conference Tournament at Hoover Metropolitan Stadium. Alabama is the 9th seed while Missouri holds the 16th seed. The teams have a recent history of close matchups, with Alabama narrowly defeating Missouri 4-3 in a 2015 SEC Tournament game. Both teams enter this game with solid pitching matchups featuring RHP Tyler Fay for Alabama and RHP Sam Horn for Missouri. Alabama has shown strong performances throughout the season and tournament, whereas Missouri is seeking an upset as the underdog.
Key Factors to Consider
- Alabama has demonstrated strong form during the season and SEC Tournament, including recent wins over top-ranked teams; Missouri has struggled more this season but has shown resilience in some close games. Alabama’s defense and pitching have been more consistent, contributing to their favored status.
- The only previous SEC Tournament meeting saw Alabama win 4-3 in 2015. Recent regular season games indicate Alabama has generally had the edge over Missouri, including a series moved due to weather showing competitive but ultimately favorable results for Alabama.
- No specific injury reports or player absences were noted for either team ahead of this game.
- The game is played at a neutral site, Hoover Metropolitan Stadium, which may slightly favor Alabama due to geographic proximity. Weather delays or changes have affected previous scheduling between these teams but no impact is currently expected.
- Alabama, as the 9th seed, aims to advance in the SEC Tournament with momentum from solid recent performances. Missouri, seeded 16th, is highly motivated to upset a ranked opponent and extend their tournament run despite underdog status.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alabama Crimson Tide: -720, Missouri Tigers: 450 | Alabama Crimson Tide win | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Spread | Alabama Crimson Tide: -4.5 -154, Missouri Tigers: +4.5 120 | Alabama Crimson Tide to cover -4.5 run spread | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Over/under | Over 14.5: -120, Under 14.5: -110 | Over 14.5 total runs | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alabama Crimson Tide -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 14.5 10% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 14.5 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Alabama Crimson Tide are favored to win based on stronger overall season performance, pitching matchup, and current odds. Expect a competitive game but Alabama projecting a moderate win margin.
Predicted Score: Alabama Crimson Tide 9 – Missouri Tigers 4