Match Analysis: Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-18
- Time: 6:10 PM UTC
- Location: American Family Field
Game Overview
The Milwaukee Brewers host the Minnesota Twins in an MLB matchup featuring Brewers' Freddy Peralta on the mound versus Twins' Zebby Matthews making his season debut. The Brewers enter with a slightly worse overall record (21-25) compared to the Twins (26-20), but are favored given Peralta's strong pitching stats this season against the Twins' less experienced starter.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Brewers have a 21-25 record, relying on Freddy Peralta who is 4-3 with a 2.66 ERA and 52 strikeouts this season. The Twins hold a better 26-20 record, but their starter Zebby Matthews struggled last season with a 6.69 ERA and is making his first career start against Milwaukee.
- Recent head-to-head specifics are limited, but Milwaukee is favored with a 61.5% implied moneyline winning probability and has demonstrated solid performance as favorites this season.
- No significant injury reports have been noted impacting either starting lineup or key players for this match.
- The game will be played indoors at American Family Field, limiting weather impact. Pitcher matchup and recent form strongly influence the betting markets.
- The Brewers aim to stop the Twins' current streak and improve their slightly under .500 season, while the Twins look to continue their positive momentum with their better overall record.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Milwaukee Brewers: -156, Minnesota Twins: 132 | Milwaukee Brewers win | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 138, Minnesota Twins: 1.5 -166 | Minnesota Twins +1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over: 8 100, Under: 8 -122 | Under 8 runs | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Milwaukee Brewers 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 8 9% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8 at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Milwaukee Brewers are predicted to win a close game, leveraging strong pitching from Freddy Peralta and home-field advantage, with a final score projection of Brewers 4, Twins 3.
Predicted Score: 4-3 Milwaukee Brewers