Match Analysis: Tampa Bay Rays vs Milwaukee Brewers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-11
- Time: 5:40 PM UTC
- Location: George M. Steinbrenner Field, Tampa, FL
Game Overview
The Tampa Bay Rays host the Milwaukee Brewers in the third game of their series. The previous two games have been tightly contested, with the Rays winning 4-3 on May 9 and 3-2 on May 10, both at home. Both teams have showcased competitive batting and pitching performances, emphasizing a close matchup expected again today.
Key Factors to Consider
- Tampa Bay Rays have demonstrated slightly stronger performance at home with consistent pitching and timely hitting, highlighted by key contributions from players like Brandon Lowe and Junior Caminero. Milwaukee Brewers have fought hard in away games, relying on power hitters like Joey Ortiz and Rhys Hoskins but have fallen short in close games recently.
- In the current series, Rays lead 2-0 with close scorelines of 4-3 and 3-2. Historically, matchups at Tampa have been competitive, with marginal advantages for the home team.
- No major injuries reported for either team affecting today's game lineup, with starting pitchers and key offensive players active and expected to contribute.
- Weather is expected to be clear with no significant delays or wind factors at the outdoor venue. Tampa Bay Rays benefit from solid home crowd support, with attendance around 10,000 noted in recent games.
- Both teams are motivated to win to gain momentum early in the season. Rays aim to continue home dominance and extend the winning streak, while Brewers look to avoid a series sweep and stabilize their away performance.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Milwaukee Brewers: 125, Tampa Bay Rays: -138 | Tampa Bay Rays to win | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | Milwaukee Brewers: 1.5 -170, Tampa Bay Rays: -1.5 149 | Tampa Bay Rays to cover -1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over: 8.5 -115, Under: 8.5 -105 | Under 8.5 runs | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tampa Bay Rays 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 8.5 17% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Based on recent form, home advantage, and marginally stronger team stats, Tampa Bay Rays are favored to win the match, though the contest is likely to be close with Milwaukee Brewers pushing hard.
Predicted Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4 – 2 Milwaukee Brewers