Match Analysis: Dolphins vs New Zealand Warriors – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-17
- Time: 5:00 AM UTC
- Location: Karren Brady Stadium (Home advantage for Dolphins)
Game Overview
The Dolphins and New Zealand Warriors face off in Round 11 of the 2025 NRL season. Both teams come off narrow victories; the Dolphins won 20-16 against the Eels, while the Warriors edged out the Dragons 15-14. The Warriors have a superior season record and current form compared to the Dolphins, and they sit 2nd on the ladder with a 7-2 record, while the Dolphins are 12th with 4 wins and 6 losses. Previous head-to-head encounters this season have been very close, with each team winning one game by small margins.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Warriors have been dominant with a 78% win rate this season and a strong recent form (LWWWW), while the Dolphins have struggled for consistency and sit lower in the standings with a 40% win rate (WWLLW). Both teams have shown resilience in close games recently.
- Two meetings so far in 2025 have resulted in one win each, with close scorelines: 34-32 and 24-20. This suggests a very competitive and tightly matched rivalry.
- No major injury updates available from current public data, so both teams are likely near full strength.
- The match is played at the Dolphins' home ground, possibly providing a slight home advantage. No adverse weather or other external conditions have been reported to affect the game.
- The Warriors are motivated to maintain their high ladder position among title contenders. The Dolphins aim to improve their standing and prove their home strength, making this a high-intensity matchup.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Dolphins: 108, New Zealand Warriors: -121, Draw: 1800 | New Zealand Warriors win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Dolphins -1.5: 100, New Zealand Warriors +1.5: -130 | New Zealand Warriors +1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 47.5: -120, Under 47.5: -110 | Under 47.5 points | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | New Zealand Warriors -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 47.5 -1% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 47.5 at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the Warriors' superior form, standings, and slightly better odds, they are favoured to win a close contest, but the Dolphins' home advantage and resilience make an upset possible.
Predicted Score: Dolphins 22 – 24 New Zealand Warriors