Match Analysis: Matus Juracek vs Mateusz Pawlik – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-18
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: KSW 111 Event Venue (Poland)
Game Overview
Upcoming KSW welterweight bout between Matus Juracek and Mateusz Pawlik. Pawlik is slight favorite on moneyline but odds are close indicating a competitive matchup.
Key Factors to Consider
- Pawlik holds recent edge with consistent fight activity and more finishes, while Juracek demonstrates solid grappling and durability. Both have similar rankings in welterweight division.
- No direct prior matchups recorded between Juracek and Pawlik, making this a first-time encounter.
- No current injury reports or withdrawals affecting either fighter ahead of the match.
- Fight being held in Poland may favor Pawlik who is local and likely has crowd advantage; no travel or jetlag issues reported.
- Pawlik seeks to cement status with a win in front of home fans; Juracek looks to upset and climb rankings with victory on opponent’s turf.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Mateusz Pawlik: -130, Matus Juracek: 110 | Mateusz Pawlik | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Spread | Mateusz Pawlik -1.5 rounds: -120, Matus Juracek +1.5 rounds: 100 | Mateusz Pawlik -1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: -110, Under 2.5 rounds: -110 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Mateusz Pawlik -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Mateusz Pawlik at -3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Mateusz Pawlik to win by moneyline, covering the spread with a competitive fight ending under expected rounds due to tactical pacing.
Predicted Score: Mateusz Pawlik wins via TKO/KO in Round 2