Match Analysis: Welisson Paiva vs Mateusz Makarowski – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-20
• Time: 5:00 PM UTC
• Location: Hala Podpromie, Rzeszów, Poland

Game Overview

This KSW Lightweight division main card bout features Welisson Paiva, a 12-4-1 Brazilian fighter known for his striking power, against Polish local Mateusz Makarowski, who stands slightly taller with a reach advantage. Both fighters have similar experience levels but differing styles.

Key Factors to Consider

• Welisson Paiva comes in with a strong recent form, leveraging notable striking accuracy and experience in finishing fights, while Makarowski's record is slightly less prominent with fewer high-profile wins. Paiva's consistent pressure and grappling defense have been superior in his last five fights.
• No direct previous encounters between these two fighters; this will be their first matchup.
• No reported injuries affecting either fighter as of fight day, indicating both at full strength.
• Fight taking place in Makarowski's home country (Poland), possibly favoring him with crowd support. However, Welisson Paiva has extensive international fight experience, which might neutralize home advantage.
• Motivation appears high for both; Paiva aims to improve his KSW standing while Makarowski is motivated to claim a significant win on home soil to elevate his profile.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	+105	Welisson Paiva	★★★★☆ 70%
Spread	-110	Welisson Paiva -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	-115	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Away 44%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Away at 44% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Welisson Paiva to win by Moneyline, with a moderately conservative spread play favoring Paiva by a 1.5 rounds margin, and the fight to go over the total rounds line set.

Predicted Score: Welisson Paiva wins via decision or late finish in Round 3

Match Analysis: Aymard Guih vs Mateusz Makarowski – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-10
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: Lyon, France

Game Overview

Aymard Guih (19-13) faces Mateusz Makarowski (12-7-1) in a lightweight bout at KSW 106. Both fighters are experienced, with Guih holding a slight edge in overall fight volume. The bout is set to take place at 155 lbs.

Key Factors to Consider

• Aymard Guih has faced a higher caliber of opponents and is more active in top European promotions. Mateusz Makarowski has a respectable record but has experienced inconsistency in recent bouts.
• No prior head-to-head bouts between these fighters have been recorded.
• No official injury reports found for either fighter as of the fight announcement.
• Guih will have a home advantage in France, which could influence crowd support and judging.
• Both fighters are seeking to climb the lightweight ranks in KSW. Guih may be more motivated by the home crowd, while Makarowski will be eager to rebound from previous losses.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Aymard Guih: -300 | Mateusz Makarowski: 200	Aymard Guih	High

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Aymard Guih -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Aymard Guih at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Aymard Guih is favored to win by decision or late stoppage due to his experience, higher activity, and home advantage. Makarowski's best path is an early finish, as he may struggle with Guih's pace in later rounds.

Predicted Score: Aymard Guih by Unanimous Decision or Late TKO