Match Analysis: Manuel Exposito vs Jose Delano – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-20
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Dana White's Contender Series, UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV
Game Overview
Featherweight main card fight featuring Manuel Exposito (13-2) from Argentina vs. Jose Delano (15-3) from Brazil. Both fighters are in good recent form with contrasting styles and solid submission skills.
Key Factors to Consider
- Exposito is 13-2 with a balanced finish ratio: 53.8% submissions, 23.1% KO, 23.1% decisions. Delano is slightly more experienced (15-3) with similarly versatile skills. Both have solid grappling but Delano edges on experience and recent activity.
- This is their first official meeting; no prior H2H data available. Both fighters familiar with Contender Series-level competition.
- No known current injuries for either fighter leading into the bout, fully prepared to compete.
- Battle at UFC APEX with neutral venue conditions. No significant external disruptions or advantages reported.
- Both fighters motivated for a UFC contract, but Delano has a slight psychological edge as the betting favorite, implying market confidence and presumed momentum.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jose Delano: -425, Manuel Exposito: +325 | Jose Delano | ★★★★☆ 74% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds -125, Under 2.5 rounds -105 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 63% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jose Delano -6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 21% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 21% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 22.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Jose Delano to win. Spread: Jose Delano -1.5 rounds. Over/Under: Under 2.5 rounds (fight expected to finish before 3rd round).
Predicted Score: Jose Delano wins by submission in Round 2