Match Analysis: Cronulla Sutherland Sharks vs Dolphins - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-11
- Time: 10:00 AM UTC
- Location: Shark Park (Sharks Stadium), Sydney, Australia
Game Overview
The Cronulla Sutherland Sharks face the Dolphins in Round 19 of the NRL at Shark Park, Sydney. Both teams come off a bye week, expected to be well-rested for a crucial contest. The Sharks are currently 10th on the ladder, seeking to halt a two-game losing streak and improve their form at home where they traditionally perform well. The Dolphins sit 7th, aiming to consolidate a top-eight finals position after a strong recent win over South Sydney. The Dolphins have the psychological edge, leading the head-to-head with two wins from two meetings, including a close 30-28 away victory earlier in the season. This match is critical for both teams’ finals ambitions.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Dolphins have been scoring prolifically, with 184 points in their last four games and strong individual performances like Herbie Farnworth's nine tries in 10 games. The Sharks have struggled, winning only one of their last five games, but have a strong home advantage and key players such as Ronaldo Mulitalo who has an impressive try rate at Shark Park.
- The Dolphins are undefeated against the Sharks, having won both previous encounters including a decisive 36-16 win at Suncorp and a narrow 30-28 win at Sharks Stadium.
- The Dolphins lost Kodi Nikorima to a hamstring injury, with Isaiya Katoa stepping into a greater playmaking role bolstered by confidence from recent NSW Blues camp involvement. The Sharks have named a stable squad including utility Daniel Atkinson returning on the bench, maintaining good squad continuity.
- Both teams enjoying a week off prior to the match should negate fatigue factors. The Sharks benefit from home conditions at Shark Park. Broadcast coverage on major networks suggests a high-profile and closely followed game.
- The Dolphins are motivated to cement their top-eight spot with a win, while the Sharks look to arrest a poor run and build momentum for a strong season finish. The Sharks' home crowd and history of tough home performances provide motivational leverage.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Cronulla Sutherland Sharks: -152, Dolphins: 132, Draw: 2100 | Dolphins | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Spread | Cronulla Sutherland Sharks: -3.5 -115, Dolphins: +3.5 -115 | Dolphins +3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Over/under | Over: 46.5 -115, Under: 46.5 -115 | Over 46.5 | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Cronulla Sutherland Sharks 40% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 46.5 20% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Cronulla Sutherland Sharks at 40% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 30.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the Dolphins' strong recent form, undefeated record vs. Sharks, and scoring prowess, they are favored to win narrowly but the Sharks' home toughness and need for form recovery make it a close contest. The predicted outcome is a Dolphins win by a small margin.
Predicted Score: Dolphins 28 - 24 Cronulla Sutherland Sharks
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