Match Analysis: Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-09
- Time: 10:09 PM UTC
- Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
Game Overview
Key NLDS matchup where the Los Angeles Dodgers host the Philadelphia Phillies, featuring strong starting pitching from Tyler Glasnow (Phillies) and Cristopher Sanchez (Dodgers). The Dodgers enter on hot form with recent winning and ATS streaks, while the Phillies face pressure after recent playoff struggles.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 games and 4-1 ATS recently, showing strong home performance and resilience after losses. The Phillies have lost 5 consecutive playoff games after wins and have struggled to cover the run line in these situations. Dodgers have consistently led at mid-game points against winning teams.
- Recent season and playoff matchups favor the Dodgers, who have won initial innings and led at the 5-inning mark in most home games vs winning teams. Phillies starter Sanchez is 2-0 vs Dodgers recently, but Dodgers offense and bullpen have been effective at home.
- No significant injuries reported impacting starting pitchers Glasnow or Sanchez; both expected to start and perform well, maintaining their season ERAs of 3.13 and 2.51 respectively.
- Weather conditions are ideal (79Β°F, 0% rain, moderate wind), minimizing any external disruption on gameplay. The game is at Dodger Stadium, a hitter-friendly park that has seen 40 of 81 games going over total recently for Dodgers home games.
- Dodgers show higher playoff momentum and motivation based on streaks and performance after losses, likely to maintain aggressive play. Phillies may be under pressure given recent struggles in playoffs and chasing road deficits early in games.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Dodgers -124, Phillies +106 | Los Angeles Dodgers | β β β β β 75% |
Spread | Dodgers -1.5 +152, Phillies +1.5 -184 | Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Over/under | Over 7.5 -115, Under 7.5 -105 | Over 7.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Los Angeles Dodgers 8% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 7.5 12% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 7.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Los Angeles Dodgers to win moneyline, cover the -1.5 run spread, with the game finishing over 7.5 total runs
Predicted Score: Dodgers 5, Phillies 3