Match Analysis: Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-28
- Time: 7:20 PM UTC
- Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago
Game Overview
The Chicago Cubs will host the St. Louis Cardinals in a critical late-season MLB matchup. The Cubs recently dominated the Cardinals 12-1 in their last encounter on September 26, 2025, showcasing strong offensive firepower highlighted by multiple home runs and a grand slam. This game is pivotal for both teams as they jockey for playoff positioning.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Cubs are in strong form, having just delivered a dominant 12-1 victory over the Cardinals with exceptional hitting performances including Pete Crow-Armstrong's milestone achievement (30 homers, 30 doubles, 30 stolen bases). The Cardinals showed some resilience but were unable to contain the Cubs' offence.
- In the last head-to-head meeting on September 26, 2025, the Cubs routed the Cardinals 12-1 at Wrigley Field. Historically, these divisional rivals play tightly contested games, but the recent game heavily favors the Cubs' current momentum.
- Current injury data for both teams is not explicitly provided in the sources, implying no major reported absences impacting either side significantly for this match.
- The match is at Wrigley Field, which is traditionally favorable for the Cubs. Weather or other external effects are not specified. Fan Appreciation Weekend promotions could add motivation for the home crowd and team.
- Both teams are fighting for playoff positioning in late September with high stakes. The Cubs' recent confident win over the Cardinals likely boosts their morale, while the Cardinals will be motivated to avoid back-to-back losses against a division rival.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Chicago Cubs: -169, St. Louis Cardinals: 144 | Chicago Cubs | β β β β β 85% |
| Spread | Chicago Cubs: -1.5 128, St. Louis Cardinals: 1.5 -151 | Chicago Cubs -1.5 | β β β β β 75% |
| Over/under | Over: 8 -111, Under: 8 -110 | Over 8 runs | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Chicago Cubs -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 8 3% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 8 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 2.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Chicago Cubs are favored to win given their recent dominant performance and home field advantage. The moneyline and spread odds also signal market confidence in the Cubs overcoming the Cardinals decisively.
Predicted Score: Chicago Cubs 7 – St. Louis Cardinals 3