Match Analysis: Rafael Alves vs Karl Albrektsson – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-28
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Wintrust Arena, Chicago, Illinois

Game Overview

The MMA Mixed Martial Arts match between Rafael Alves and Karl Albrektsson takes place during the 2025 PFL Light Heavyweight Semifinals. Both fighters are competing at 205 lbs, with a focus on advancing to the PFL World Tournament Finals. The bout is highly competitive given both have shown strong performances in recent bouts within the PFL season.

Key Factors to Consider

• Rafael Alves has a strong grappling and submission skill set complemented by steady striking, whereas Karl Albrektsson is known for his toughness and well-rounded striking and wrestling abilities. Alves carries momentum from his recent fights and has a slightly better overall finishing rate. Albrektsson's resilience and conditioning are notable strengths.
• There is no official record of a direct head-to-head matchup between Rafael Alves and Karl Albrektsson prior to this fight, making this encounter a fresh tactical challenge for both fighters.
• No publicly reported injuries or health issues are known for either fighter leading into the match, indicating both are likely at full fighting capacity.
• The fight occurs at a significant PFL event hosted at Wintrust Arena in Chicago, giving both fighters exposure but no home advantage. The event's high stakes and media coverage could increase motivation but also pressure.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, as a win advances them to the prestigious PFL World Tournament Finals with a substantial prize and career advancement on the line.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Rafael Alves: -165, Karl Albrektsson: 135	Rafael Alves to win	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	Rafael Alves: -1.5, Karl Albrektsson: +1.5	Rafael Alves by more than 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	over_2.5_rounds: -110, under_2.5_rounds: -110	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 58%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Rafael Alves -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Rafael Alves at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Rafael Alves is favored to win the bout due to his slightly better odds, demonstrated finishing ability, and current form. However, Karl Albrektsson's resilience and capability to withstand pressure make this a potentially close fight.

Predicted Score: Rafael Alves wins by decision or late submission in round 3

Match Analysis: Simeon Powell vs Karl Albrektsson – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-02
• Time: 9:00 PM UTC
• Location: Orlando, Florida

Game Overview

Simeon Powell and Karl Albrektsson are set to clash in an exciting MMA bout as part of the PFL Challenger Series. Powell, standing at 6'5'' and weighing 206 lbs, faces Karl Albrektsson, who is 6'2'' and 205 lbs. The fight promises to be intense given the competitive profiles of both fighters.

Key Factors to Consider

• Both fighters have strong MMA backgrounds. Simeon Powell has a record of 10-1-0, while Karl Albrektsson stands at 14-5-0. Powell's physical stature might give him an advantage in reach.
• No past head-to-head results available.
• No notable recent injuries reported for either fighter.
• The venue in Orlando could host a supportive crowd, but its impact on either fighter is uncertain.
• Both fighters are motivated to win and advance in the PFL tournament.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Karl Albrektsson: +160, Simeon Powell: -190	Simeon Powell	★★★★☆ 75%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Simeon Powell -8%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Simeon Powell at -8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Simeon Powell is favored due to his recent performance and physical advantages.

Predicted Score: Decision: Simeon Powell wins via Unanimous Decision

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Simeon Powell vs. Karl Albrektsson Prediction	Simeon Powell Win	-190	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)
Oleg Popov vs. Karl Williams Prediction	Oleg Popov Win	-245	★★★★☆ 70% (70%)
Alexander Romanov vs. Timothy Johnson Prediction	Alexander Romanov Win	-500	★★★★☆ 70% (70%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +158

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $51.58