Match Analysis: Botafogo vs Ceará – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-04
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Botafogo Home Ground (likely Estádio Nilton Santos)
Game Overview
The upcoming Campeonato Brazil match sees Botafogo hosting Ceará. Botafogo has historically had mixed results against Ceará but shows slight advantages in overall win counts and points per game. Ceará has been in better recent form in direct matchups, winning 3 of the last 4 head-to-head matches against Botafogo SP with high scoring games averaging 4.25 goals per match. Botafogo’s home scoring averages are low this season, while Ceará scores consistently on the road. The game is expected to feature moderate goal scoring.
Key Factors to Consider
- Botafogo SP scored only 0.64 goals per match average this season with limited home scoring success. Ceará averages 2.00 goals per away match this season and historically has dominated recent direct confrontations in terms of wins and goals.
- In the recent 12-18 historical encounters (mix of Botafogo clubs), Botafogo won roughly 2-6 games while Ceará won 3-6, with many draws. Recent Botafogo SP vs Ceará encounters show Ceará winning 3 out of 4 matches with high scoring games and no under 1.5 or 2.5 goal matches, indicating open, attacking affairs.
- No specific injury details available from the data, implying no notable absences impacting starting lineups.
- Botafogo’s home advantage may be moderated by their poor recent home scoring form. Ceará’s away scoring consistency and strong recent head-to-head record suggest they are confident traveling. No unusual external disruptions reported.
- Botafogo aims to improve poor home form and reclaim dominance in direct matches, while Ceará seeks to maintain their winning streak in this rivalry and capitalize on their strong away scoring performance.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Botafogo: -160, Ceará: 460, Draw: 290 | Botafogo win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Botafogo: -0.75 -122, Ceará: +75 102 | Botafogo -0.75 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25: -105, Under 2.25: -115 | Over 2.25 goals | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Botafogo -7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.25 13% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.25 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Ceará to either win or draw with moderate confidence due to recent dominance and attacking form. Expect a competitive match with over 2 goals likely.
Predicted Score: 2-1