Match Analysis: Azamat Nuftillaev vs Jovan Leka – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-15
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Dana White's Contender Series Event
Game Overview
Heavyweight MMA contest between Azamat Nuftillaev and Jovan Leka, featuring two well-rounded fighters: Nuftillaev with balanced striking and grappling and Leka known for agility and endurance.
Key Factors to Consider
- Nuftillaev displays a more versatile skill set with both striking and grappling proficiency, while Leka's strength lies in footwork and high stamina. Recent form shows Nuftillaev maintaining control in fights through tactical takedowns; Leka relies on late-round pressure.
- No recorded previous head-to-head matchup between these fighters, increasing emphasis on style matchup and current form.
- No reported injuries for either fighter going into the fight, leading to an evenly matched physical condition.
- Fight is part of Dana White's Contender Series, increasing motivation for both fighters to perform well to advance career opportunities.
- High for both competitors due to the stakes of the Contender Series. Nuftillaev might have slight edge in motivation as the more established grappler aiming to showcase versatility.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -123 for Nuftillaev, +103 for Leka | Azamat Nuftillaev | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Azamat Nuftillaev -1.5 rounds EV approx -110, Jovan Leka +1.5 rounds EV approx -110 | Azamat Nuftillaev -1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds -115, Under 2.5 rounds -105 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Azamat Nuftillaev 3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Azamat Nuftillaev at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 4.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Azamat Nuftillaev to win by moneyline
Predicted Score: Nuftillaev wins by TKO or submission in Round 2