Match Analysis: Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-25
- Time: 10:36 PM UTC
- Location: Camden Yards
Game Overview
The Baltimore Orioles host the Boston Red Sox in an AL East matchup. The Red Sox enter favored at -118 on the moneyline and as -1.5 run road favorites. The over/under is set at 9.5 runs.
Key Factors to Consider
- Boston is the top Wild Card team with a record of 30-35 on the road, whereas Baltimore is 31-33 at home. Boston recently won a key series against the Yankees, while Baltimore struggled against Houston but performed well in their recent matchups against the Red Sox.
- The Red Sox have a slight edge with a 51.1% predicted win probability and historically have a 72-58-0 ATS record over the season. Baltimore won the last encounter with the Red Sox and their starter Sugano has been strong in recent starts.
- No critical injury reports significantly impacting starting pitchers or lineup depth were noted for either team.
- Game played at Camden Yards favors Orioles slightly with familiar conditions. Weather and other external factors appear neutral for this matchup.
- Boston aims to maintain momentum from their win over the Yankees and solidify their Wild Card position. Baltimore is motivated to defend home turf and rebound off recent losses to Houston.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | +100 | Baltimore Orioles | β β β ββ 65% |
Spread | -162 | Baltimore Orioles +1.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Over/under | -115 | Under 9.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Boston Red Sox 0% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 9.5 8% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 9.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Baltimore Orioles moneyline
Predicted Score: Baltimore Orioles 4 – Boston Red Sox 3