Match Analysis: Kurt Holobaugh vs Jordan Leavitt – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-31
- Time: 10:40 PM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
Game Overview
The Lightweight division prelim fight at UFC Vegas 107 pits Kurt Holobaugh against Jordan Leavitt. Holobaugh, aged 38 with a record of 22-9-0, is an orthodox striker known for his higher output of significant strikes per minute but with a lower accuracy compared to Leavitt who is a southpaw with a record of 11-3-0. Leavitt is younger at 29 years old and favors defensive striking, absorbing fewer significant strikes per minute. The fight is expected to be a tactical battle between Holobaugh’s volume striking and Leavitt’s precision and defensive skills.
Key Factors to Consider
- Holobaugh averages 4.65 significant strikes per minute landing 45% accuracy but takes 4.30 strikes per minute. Leavitt lands 2.55 significant strikes per minute at 61% accuracy while taking only 1.84 strikes per minute, defensively superior with a 57% strike defense compared to Holobaugh's 49%. Both fighters have solid grappling but striking stats favor Leavitt in precision and defense.
- No direct past encounters between Holobaugh and Leavitt have been recorded, making this matchup a fresh tactical contest without prior outcomes influencing prediction.
- No notable injuries reported for either fighter leading into this bout, suggesting both are expected to perform at full capacity.
- Fight taking place at UFC Apex in Las Vegas with likely neutral crowd influence. Both fighters have motivation to climb the lightweight ranks with Leavitt being the rising younger prospect and Holobaugh an experienced veteran seeking resurgence.
- Leavitt’s youth and upward trajectory provide strong motivation to secure a decisive win; Holobaugh’s veteran status and need to maintain relevance in the division fuel his drive to capitalize on experience.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jordan Leavitt: -218, Kurt Holobaugh: 180 | Jordan Leavitt | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Jordan Leavitt: -3.5 at 100, Kurt Holobaugh: +3.5 at -135 | Jordan Leavitt -3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: -160, Under 2.5 rounds: 124 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jordan Leavitt -10% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 34% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 34% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 27.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Jordan Leavitt is favored to win due to superior defensive striking, higher accuracy, and lower damage taken. His younger age and southpaw stance present stylistic and physical advantages over Holobaugh, who relies on volume but is more vulnerable defensively.
Predicted Score: Jordan Leavitt wins by decision or late stoppage within 3 rounds