Match Analysis: Rayanne dos Santos vs Alice Ardelean – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-31
- Time: 10:15 PM UTC
- Location: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV
Game Overview
This is a women’s strawweight bout between Rayanne dos Santos and Alice Ardelean, both seeking their first UFC win after 0-2 starts in the promotion. Dos Santos is considered the more skilled fighter, with a well-rounded background and prior success at lower weights, notably atomweight, but recent UFC performances have seen her lose by controversial split decisions due to a lack of control and impactful offense. Ardelean, a regional staple from Romania, is a tough competitor with a bullying, high-pace style, but often tires herself out and is considered a long shot in this matchup.
Key Factors to Consider
- Dos Santos is favored due to her technical skills and better regional record, but her UFC performances have been inconsistent, often coming up short despite outworking opponents. Ardelean’s regional record is less impressive and she has struggled against more skilled UFC competition, though she brings grit and pressure.
- No prior head-to-head encounters between dos Santos and Ardelean.
- No major injuries reported for either fighter ahead of this bout.
- Fighters are moving up in weight or fighting at their divisional limit, which could impact stamina and power. Additionally, both are under pressure to secure their first UFC victory, adding emotional stakes.
- Both fighters are highly motivated to avoid a third consecutive UFC loss. Dos Santos may have an edge in confidence from her prior performances, while Ardelean wants to defy odds and establish herself.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | dos Santos: -265, Ardelean: +215 | Rayanne dos Santos (Home) is favored to win, but Alice Ardelean (Away) is a live underdog. | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | dos Santos -3.5 (+100), Ardelean +3.5 (-135) | dos Santos to cover -3.5 is plausible but not certain due to her decision-prone style and Ardelean’s toughness. | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 (-475), Under 2.5 (+325) | Heavy favorite for Over 2.5, as both fighters have shown durability and Ardelean’s style is likely to tire rather than finish. | ★★★★☆ 85% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Rayanne dos Santos 114% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 3% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Rayanne dos Santos at 114% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 53.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Despite being the clear favorite, dos Santos has struggled to get her hand raised in the UFC due to close decisions and lackluster finishes. Ardelean’s pressure and physicality could make this an ugly fight, and recent trends suggest judges may reward Ardelean’s aggression, especially if the fight is close. However, dos Santos’ technical skills and experience should enable her to outwork Ardelean over three rounds. The betting market expects dos Santos to win or Ardelean to lose within the distance, but Ardelean is respected as a live underdog given recent results and judge preferences.
Predicted Score: Rayanne dos Santos wins by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28), but the fight is closer than the betting odds suggest and could swing either way based on judge preferences and Ardelean’s pressure tactics[1][2][5].
