Match Analysis: Juliana Miller vs Ivana Petrovic – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-03
- Time: 11:15 PM UTC
- Location: Wells Fargo Arena in Des Moines, IA
Game Overview
Flyweight bout between Juliana Miller (4-3-0, 1-2 UFC), an aggressive striker with defensive vulnerabilities, and Ivana Petrovic (7-2-0, 1-2 UFC), a durable southpaw with superior reach and decision-oriented style. Miller's UFC future may hinge on this fight[2][5].
Key Factors to Consider
- Miller lands 3.31 significant strikes/min (45% accuracy) but absorbs 4.75/min (32% defense). Petrovic lands 2.00/min (39% accuracy) while allowing only 2.27/min (55% defense)[1].
- First meeting between fighters.
- No reported injuries.
- Miller's 18-month layoff vs. Petrovic's recent activity. 5'8" Petrovic holds 4" reach advantage[1][2].
- Miller potentially fighting for UFC roster spot; Petrovic seeking second UFC win[2][5].
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Petrovic -220 / Miller +185 | Petrovic moneyline | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds -210 / Under 2.5 +170 | Over 2.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 80% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ivana Petrovic 85% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 6% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Ivana Petrovic at 85% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 46.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Petrovic by decision (confidence: 75%) via superior defense, reach advantage, and Miller's tendency to fade against technical strikers[1][2][5].
Predicted Score: Petrovic via unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)