Match Analysis: Fordham Rams vs LIU Sharks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 20, 2025
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Rose Hill Gymnasium, Bronx, New York
Game Overview
The LIU Sharks (3-1) travel to face the Fordham Rams (3-2) in a matchup between two mid-tier NCAA Division I programs. LIU enters on a three-game winning streak with strong offensive efficiency, while Fordham seeks to stabilize after a 3-2 start to the season. This game features contrasting defensive profiles, with LIU ranking 24th in points allowed (65.3 PPG) while Fordham allows 78.0 PPG, ranking 325th nationally. The Rams' offensive firepower (74.3 PPG, 157th ranked) slightly edges LIU's output (67.7 PPG, 325th ranked), but the Sharks' defensive prowess presents a significant challenge.
Key Factors to Consider
- LIU Sharks: 3-1 record with 81.3 PPG average, shooting 51.3% from the field and 42.6% from three-point range (23 of 54). In their most recent game, LIU dominated with 59% field goal shooting (36-61), 7 three-pointers, and forced 14 turnovers while collecting 32 rebounds. Fordham Rams: 3-2 record with 79.4 PPG average and 45.2% field goal shooting. Recently defeated Manhattanville 96-62, demonstrating strong interior control with 48 total rebounds (38 defensive, 10 offensive). Fordham's three-point shooting appears weaker compared to LIU, and they commit more turnovers per game (10.8 vs 12.2 for LIU). Fordham's free throw shooting is superior at 69.3% compared to LIU's 56.3%.
- Historical matchup data shows Fordham is 0-3 against the over/under in recent contests and 0-1 in home games. LIU is 3-1 overall in their last four games and 2-1 away from home. The previous meetings show competitive margins, suggesting this contest will be closely contested despite Fordham's home court advantage.
- Fordham: Zarique Nutter (G) – Undisclosed injury status. Dejour Reaves (G) – Undisclosed injury status. These backcourt injuries could impact Fordham's ball handling and perimeter defense, potentially limiting their offensive versatility.
- Home court advantage favors Fordham at Rose Hill Gymnasium. LIU's success this season has come largely through superior defensive execution and three-point shooting, suggesting they travel well offensively. The neutral-to-slightly-favorable matchup dynamics slightly favor the defensive specialist (LIU) against a higher-turnover, more defensive-liability team (Fordham).
- LIU is seeking to extend a three-game winning streak and maintain momentum with a road victory. Fordham needs to stabilize its 3-2 record and cannot afford another home loss to maintain tournament credentials. The home team's motivation and recent struggles against the spread suggest urgency from Fordham.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Fordham Rams -188 | LIU Sharks +152 | LIU Sharks | β β β ββ 58% |
| Spread | Fordham Rams -3.5 (-110) | LIU Sharks +3.5 (-110) | LIU Sharks +3.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
| Over/under | Over 147.5 (-110) | Under 147.5 (-114) | Under 147.5 | β β β ββ 64% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Fordham Rams 65% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 147.5 3% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Fordham Rams at 65% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 42.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
This matchup presents value for LIU as an underdog, given their elite defensive ranking (24th nationally) against Fordham's porous defense (325th). LIU's 51.3% field goal shooting and 42.6% three-point percentage create significant offensive firepower, while their ability to force turnovers (14 in recent game) provides additional scoring opportunities. Fordham's home court advantage and superior free throw shooting are mitigated by their defensive liabilities and turnover issues. The Sharks' three-game winning streak and road success suggest they can navigate Rose Hill Gymnasium successfully. However, Fordham's rebounding advantage and interior presence cannot be ignored. The game projects as a low-scoring defensive struggle despite the elevated point total.
Predicted Score: Fordham Rams 73 – LIU Sharks 74 (LIU wins by 1 point; Final Total: 147 points)