Match Analysis: Vergil Ortiz Jr vs Erickson Lubin – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-09
• Time: 4:00 AM UTC
• Location: Dickies Arena, Fort Worth, United States

Game Overview

Vergil Ortiz Jr faces Erickson Lubin for the interim WBC super welterweight title in a 12-round bout. Ortiz Jr is the heavy favorite, with odds around -800, while Lubin is priced at +500. The fight is expected to be a showcase of Ortiz Jr's knockout power versus Lubin's resilience and experience.

Key Factors to Consider

• Ortiz Jr is 23-0 with 22 knockouts, demonstrating elite power and aggression. Lubin is 27-2, with a recent three-fight winning streak but has suffered two stoppage losses in title fights. Ortiz Jr's recent form includes a comeback win over Serhii Bohachuk and a successful title defense against Israil Madrimov. Lubin has shown improvement but lacks Ortiz Jr's explosive finishing ability.
• No previous meetings between Ortiz Jr and Lubin.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The fight is in Ortiz Jr's home country, likely providing a supportive crowd. The bout is for the interim WBC title, adding extra prestige and motivation.
• Ortiz Jr is defending his interim title and aiming to solidify his status as a top contender. Lubin is seeking redemption after two title fight losses and is highly motivated to capture a world title.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: -800, away: 500, draw: 2000	Vergil Ortiz Jr	Not available
Spread	home: -200, away: 150	Vergil Ortiz Jr -4.5	Not available
Over/under	over: -115, under: -115	Over 9.5	Not available

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Vergil Ortiz Jr -4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 9.5 38%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 9.5 at 38% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 44.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Vergil Ortiz Jr wins by knockout before the 10th round.

Predicted Score: Vergil Ortiz Jr wins by KO in Round 8

Top EV Parlay for Boxing – November 8, 2025

Game	Pick	Odds	EV
Eric Priest vs. Esneiker Correa Prediction	Eric Priest	-3500	1272%
Darius Fulghum vs. David Stevens Prediction	Under 8.5	124	57%
Vergil Ortiz Jr vs. Erickson Lubin Prediction	Over 9.5	-115	38%

Combined Odds: +331 |
Wager: $20 —
Potential Payout: $86.15

Match Analysis: Erickson Lubin vs Ardreal Holmes – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: May 10, 2025
• Time: 1:00 AM UTC
• Location: Silver Spurs Arena, Kissimmee

Game Overview

Erickson Lubin and Ardreal Holmes will face off in an IBF title eliminator bout. Lubin boasts significant experience and power, with a record of 26 wins, 2 losses, and 18 knockouts. Holmes is undefeated with 17 wins and 6 knockouts. The fight is expected to be closely contested, with Lubin's power and experience pitted against Holmes' height and agility.

Key Factors to Consider

• Erickson Lubin has a significant experience advantage and power, while Ardreal Holmes has an unblemished record and height advantage.
• First meeting between the two fighters.
• No reported injuries.
• Lubin is fighting in his hometown, which could provide an advantage.
• Both fighters are highly motivated to secure a title shot.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Erickson Lubin: -300, Ardreal Holmes: 225	Erickson Lubin	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 10.5: -200, Under 10.5: 165	Over 10.5	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Erickson Lubin -99%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 10.5 -99%

⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.

Predicted Outcome

Based on experience and power, Erickson Lubin is favored to win, but Ardreal Holmes' agility and height could pose a challenge.

Predicted Score: Erickson Lubin wins by decision or late stoppage.

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Joe Cooper vs. Dmitri Protkunas Prediction	Under 7.5 rounds	7.5	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)
Raymond Muratalla vs. Zaur Abdullaev Prediction	Raymond Muratalla Win	-550	★★★★☆ 70% (70%)
Erickson Lubin vs. Ardreal Holmes Prediction	Erickson Lubin Win	-300	★★★★☆ 70% (70%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: -144

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $33.88