Match Analysis: Darius Fulghum vs David Stevens – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 3:00 AM UTC
- Location: Dickies Arena, Fort Worth, Texas, United States[2][3][5]
Game Overview
A pivotal super-middleweight clash featuring two rising American talents. Darius Fulghum (14-1, 12 KO), a former U.S. national champion and Olympic alternate, faces David Stevens (15-2, 10 KO), a noted puncher with early-round knockout capability. Fulghum is viewed as the more technically sound and athletic prospect but is coming off his first career loss, while Stevens is considered dangerous, especially early, but has shown vulnerability as fights progress[1][4].
Key Factors to Consider
- Fulghum has shown elite amateur pedigree and rapid pro advancement, while Stevens is a respected finisher but sometimes starts slow. Fulghumβs power and poise give him the edge if he controls the pace. Stevens must land early and disrupt Fulghumβs rhythm to have a chance[1][4].
- No previous professional fights, but the two have sparred together in the past, sharing the same gym environment at times[4].
- No public reports of significant injuries for either fighter ahead of this bout.
- The fight is part of a Golden Boy Promotions card and will be broadcast live on DAZN in the U.S. and UK. Local support in Texas may favor Fulghum, though both fighters are based on the U.S. east coast[3][5][7].
- Fulghum is focused on rebounding from his recent loss and reasserting himself as a contender. Stevens is seeking a career-best win to break into the elite tier. Both are highly motivated with title aspirations[1][4][7].
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Fulghum -425, Stevens +298 | Fulghum to win | β β β β β 80% |
| Over/under | Over 8.5 rounds -160, Under 8.5 rounds +124 | Over 8.5 rounds β Fulghumβs style suggests he may break down Stevens in the later rounds, but Stevensβ toughness and Fulghumβs measured approach could see it go deep[1]. | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Darius Fulghum 214% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 8.5 -3% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Darius Fulghum at 214% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 72% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Fulghumβs skills, power, and ability to dictate tempo, he is favored to wear down Stevens in the later rounds, possibly forcing a late stoppage or corner retirement. Stevens has a puncherβs chance early, but if Fulghum weathers the initial storm, he should dominate the mid-to-late fight[1]. Confidence in a Fulghum victory is high (80%), with a lower but notable chance (20%) for Stevens to spring an upset. The most likely outcome is a Fulghum win by KO/TKO[1].
Predicted Score: Fulghum wins by KO/TKO in rounds 9-10, with slight possibility of a wide unanimous decision if Stevens survives the late onslaught[1].
